USC vs. Notre Dame football game preview, prediction
College Football Playoff contention, at least for the time being, could be on the line this weekend under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus, as No. 10 ranked, undefeated USC hits the road against rival No. 21 Notre Dame in college football's greatest intersectional rivalry on Saturday.
Notre Dame appears to be out of the playoff convo after dropping a second game this season, a loss on the road against ranked Louisville a week ago, which, combined with its last-second loss to Ohio State at home, could be enough to stay out of the CFP.
USC became one of college football's first bowl-eligible teams at 6-0 this season, but has consistently dropped in the national rankings after some close calls against Colorado and Arizona, showing once again that the Trojans' defensive unit is still very much a work in progress after last season's problems.
USC vs. Notre Dame preview, prediction
USC vs. Notre Dame game predictions
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How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
USC vs. Notre Dame game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Notre Dame -2.5
Total: 60.5 points
Moneyline: USC +115 | ND -143
FPI pick: Notre Dame 61.9% to win
What to watch for
1. Caleb Williams vs. ND's secondary. USC's quarterback is the reigning Heisman winner and the nation's 9th most productive passer, and he's throwing to an elite caliber of receiving targets who together represent college football's 3rd ranked air attack.
But the Irish are up to the task, ranking 4th in pass efficiency defense, holding passers to 50%, is 3rd in yards allowed, and surrendered just 4 passing touchdowns. Williams and his receivers won't find throwing lanes as easily as they have so far.
2. Battle at the line. Notre Dame's offense has struggled recently, averaging just over 18 points the last 3 games thanks in part to the surprisingly subpar play of its line protection, a unit that in the preseason was heralded as among the nation's best, but whose ability to keep the pocket clean and open interior running lanes has slumped.
USC's strength on an otherwise patchy defense is the pass rush, a stalwart rotation near the line that's 1st in the Pac-12 with 57 tackles for loss and has 22 total sacks. A good effort from the Trojans' scrimmage tacklers could help disrupt the Irish offensive rhythm and help their second-level tacklers maintain their coverages on the back end.
3. Establish the run. For all the attention the quarterbacks will get, both these teams can run the ball with authority. Audric Estime ranks 3rd among all backs with 692 total yards for the Irish, and should find some room against a Trojan defense that is 11th in its conference against the run and is known to miss tackles and allow opposing rushers to get needed yards after contact. MarShawn Lloyd is 1 of 5 FBS backs to average 7.5 yards per carry and have over 500 rushing yards, and is a dangerous complement to USC's passing attack who is good at exploiting space.
USC vs. Notre Dame prediction
Weather could play a role in this game, as it's expected to be cold, windy, and wet at kickoff. That could slightly adjust both teams' game plans and result in a more run-oriented approach early on as they test the elements before opening things up.
USC's back-end defense will let plenty enough go by and the Irish should churn out enough yards on the ground to keep it within one score from start to finish, but the Trojans still have the weapons to get an extra step against Notre Dame's second-level tacklers and make the difference in the second half.
- USC wins 38-34
- In an upset
- And hits the over
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