USC vs. Oregon: Score Prediction, Game Pick

What the analytics predict for USC vs. Oregon in this Week 11 college football game

Back during the preseason, it was expected this Pac-12 conference game would be one of the most impactful late-season games that would go a long way in helping sort out of the College Football Playoff as No. 6 Oregon hosts USC on Saturday.

• USC is out of the top 25 for the first time under Lincoln Riley
• Trojans have lost three times in the last four games
• And the sole win was by 1 point at Cal
• That's thanks in part to the team's 124th ranked scoring defense
• Oregon is 5-1 in Pac-12 play and No. 2 in the conference standings
• Ducks are top-five in passing and scoring and top-15 in rushing, scoring D

What can we expect from the game? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to forecast how the matchup will turn out.

USC vs. Oregon game prediction

The simulations favor Oregon to hold at home against Southern Cal this week.

SP+ predicts that the Ducks will beat USC by a projected score of 41 to 28 and win the game by an estimated 12.8 points.

The model gives Oregon a 77 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Oregon -15.5
Total: 76.5 points
Moneyline: USC +425 | Ducks -699

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• USC +15.5
• Ducks to win -699
• Bet under 76.5 points

Computer prediction

Most other analytic tools also project Oregon will win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Oregon will win in 83.4 percent of its simulations, or 16,680 of the predictions.

USC wins out in the remaining 16.6 percent of sims, or 3,320 projections.

By what margin will Oregon win the game? The computer predicts that the Ducks will defeat the Trojans by 11.1 points, not enough to cover the line.

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USC at Oregon game time

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 7:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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