USC vs. UCLA game pick, score prediction

What the analytics predict for USC vs. UCLA in this Week 12 college football game

This isn't where either of these long-time Los Angeles rivals expected to be, but it's where they are as we move into the Week 12 college football schedule. USC, losers in four of the last five and still playing some of the nation's worst defense, welcomes UCLA, losers of three in the last five and under .500 in conference play right now.

• Bruins could be on the verge of firing head coach Chip Kelly, as numerous insider reports contend the school is expected to move on
• UCLA has scored 17 combined points in its last two games and hasn't surpassed 20 points in any of the last three
• But it's No. 9 nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 16.4 points per game to opponents this season
• USC is 122nd in that category, letting the other team average 34.6 points against them thanks to its 123rd ranked total defense, allowing almost 450 yards
• The only thing keeping the Trojans from losing five straight was a 1-point decision at Cal in which they thwarted a last-second 2-point conversion

What can we make of this matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.

USC vs. UCLA prediction

The simulations favor the home team to win this game, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that USC will defeat UCLA by a projected score of 32 to 30 and win the game by an expected 2.2 points.

The model gives the Trojans a 55 percent chance of victory outright at home.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.

Point spread

USC is a 5 point favorite against UCLA, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total for the game at 63.5 points.

SI lists the moneyline odds for USC at -210 and for UCLA at +175.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• UCLA +5
• USC to win -210
• Bet under 63.5

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also predict USC will defeat its rival.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The computer projects that USC will win the game in 75.2 percent of its simulations, while UCLA wins out in the remaining 24.8 percent of sims outright.

The index predicts that USC will defeat UCLA by 7.3 points, enough to cover the line.

Bet on USC vs. UCLA here

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UCLA at USC game time

When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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