Utah vs. Oregon State game preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Utah and Oregon State meet in this Week 5 college football game with our updated predictions

Friday night lights returns to campus this week as the 2023 college football schedule moves to the Week 5 slate of games, including an impactful matchup between a pair of ranked Pac-12 rivals as No. 10 Utah travels to No. 19 Oregon State in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Oregon State is three points away from being undefeated, but couldn't seal the deal on the road against Washington State a week ago and needs a win badly here to avoid falling to 0-2 in conference play this early in the season.

Standing in the way is an undefeated Utes team that boasts wins over two ranked teams already, against Florida in the opener and UCLA last weekend. That's thanks to a strong defensive showing, especially against the run, as the Cam Rising-less offense is slogging through just 157 passing yards per game.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Utah and Oregon State square off, along with our updated Week 5 game predictions.

Utah vs. Oregon State preview, prediction

Utah vs. Oregon State picks, predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 7 p.m. MT, 6 p.m. PT
TV: FS1 network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Utah vs. Oregon State game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Oregon State -4.5
Total: 44.5 points
Moneyline: Utah +145 | OSU -188
FPI pick: Oregon State 58.6% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Watch how the Utes are able to defend against the Beavers' rushing attack. OSU's strength right now, Damien Martinez leads the way by averaging 108 yards per game, the most in the Pac-12 among backs. On the whole, the Beavers average 225 rushing yards per game behind a solid line, and have 12 touchdowns. Utah is 3rd nationally against the run, allowing just 51 yards and just over 2 per carry.

2. Beavs can stop you, too. Utah is average running the ball, ranking 54th at 165 yards per game while averaging 3.74 yards per carry, and quarterback Nate Johnson leads the team with 3 of its 6 rushing TDs. Oregon State is 7th nationally allowing just under 70 rushing yards each time out and held Wazzu to 3.5 per touch last week. 

3. Attack the secondary. Utah isn't known as a superb passing team, but it might find some throwing lanes against the Beavers' second-level tacklers, as WSU hit them for 422 yards a week ago. Oregon State wants to play its strength on defense, holding firm against the run, and force the Utes into long-yardage situations and clear passing downs.

Utah vs. Oregon State prediction

Don't be surprised if Utah can just ride its physical defense to another victory. That's a challenge going against DJ Uiagalelei, the best quarterback it has faced so far, but he's been up and down this season. 

If the Utes can disrupt his timing, close down his escape routes on the outside, and force him into early throws, that could force the Beavers to play a more one-dimensional game. But that's a tough call against OSU's superb line play.

With an advantage on both lines of scrimmage and at quarterback, Oregon State has the weapons to play a clean game and avoid turnovers. Uiagalalei can be the difference, with an athletic edge the Utes don't have at the position. But it's close.

College Football HQ picks...

• Oregon State wins 24-20
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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