UTSA vs. Troy Cure Bowl prediction, preview as college football bowl season kicks off

Making our prediction for the Cure Bowl between UTSA and Troy as the college football bowl season gets underway

College football bowl season kicks off this week as UTSA and Troy meet in the Cure Bowl in a battle of newly-ranked teams on Friday.

Both come into the postseason as conference champions: UTSA defeated North Texas in the Conference USA title game and has won 10 straight games, while Troy beat Coastal Carolina for the Sun Belt championship.

UTSA won the league title for the second straight year, posting one of the premier offenses in college football, averaging 38.7 points per game against FBS teams, while surrendering 26.5 points per game to opponents.

Troy has a winning record for the first time in four seasons behind one of the top defenses in the nation, a unit that allows just 17.6 points per game, ranking 7th best nationally against FBS opposition.

Here's what you need to know about the game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

UTSA vs. Troy Cure Bowl prediction, preview

When: Fri., Dec. 16

Time: 3 p.m. Eastern

TV: ESPN network

Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication

Point spread: Troy comes into the matchup as narrow 2 point favorites against UTSA, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 56 points

Moneyline: Troy -125 | UTSA -105

Place your bets: Bet on UTSA vs. Troy live at SI Sportsbook

FPI prediction: UTSA has the slight 56.3 percent margin to win the game outright, compared to Troy at 43.7 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that predicts winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.

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UTSA vs. Troy: Keys to victory

UTSA wins if: They balance things out. UTSA's offense begins with quarterback Frank Harris, the gifted dual threat who hit 71 percent of his throws for 3,865 yards, the 6th most among quarterbacks, with 31 touchdowns and 7 picks this year, and he's dangerous on the ground, adding 588 yards and nine more touchdowns. That capacity helped the Roadrunners eclipse 200 yards rushing in five of their last six games and faces a Troy defense that is 94th nationally on third down. UTSA needs to build and maintain an early lead to fend off a Trojan attack that has improved in the latter half of the season.

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Troy wins if: It can rush the pass and protect its own quarterback. Troy owns the general defensive advantage in the game, posting the nation's 8th best scoring defense, and generating a consistent pass rush, able to get at the quarterback and pressure the pocket, ranking 24th nationally by averaging 2.7 sacks per game, another distinct edge over UTSA, which is 110th with 1.5 sacks per game. Gunnar Watson has big-play ability, going over 300 yards on just 12 completions in the Sun Belt title game and he's aided by a ground attack that is over 5 ypc.

Cure Bowl Prediction

It'll be strength vs. strength when UTSA's offense goes against Troy's defense, with the Roadrunners efficient in both phases of the attack and the Trojans boasting an edge when defending against the pass.

Troy's talented pass rush will give Harris more pressure than he's used to, but the UTSA quarterback has been playing his best football lately, hitting almost 81% of his passes the last three games with over 11 yards per attempt and nine TDs against one turnover, rushing for 4 more scores. 

And Troy's defense can stumble against better passers, most recently allowing over 400 yards to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt title. In games like these, expert and veteran quarterback play tends to be the determining factor.

College Football HQ Prediction: UTSA 31, Troy 24 | UTSA +2 | Under 56

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