Texas vs. Washington Alamo Bowl preview, prediction against the spread
College football bowl season marches on this week as Texas and Washington square off in a Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup for this year's Alamo Bowl game.
On paper, the game should be an entertaining one given that it will feature two of the nation's more talented quarterback prospects, both of whom will play in the bowl as they plan for their return in the 2023 season.
Quinn Ewers heads up the Texas attack, leading an offense that played Alabama close early on and secured statement wins against UTSA and Big 12 champion Kansas State in addition to a 49-0 thrashing of rival Oklahoma.
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But the Longhorns won't have their most important player on offense after running back Bijan Robinson announced he will forego the Alamo Bowl to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft.
Washington brings in quarterback Michael Penix, who transferred in from Indiana, and went on to place No. 1 in college football in passing yards this season while leading the Huskies to a 10-win season under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, the offensive guru who helped this unit to average almost 41 points per game, nearly doubling the team's average from last season.
Here's what you need to know about this year's game between the Longhorns and the Huskies.
Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. Washington preview, predictions
Texas vs. Washington Alamo Bowl prediction, preview
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How to watch, stream
When: Thurs., Dec. 29
Time: 8 p.m. Central, 6 p.m. Pacific
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Point spread: Texas -3 (-110) | Washington +3 (+125)
Total: 67 points | Over -110 | Under -118
Moneyline: Texas -161 | Washington +125
FPI prediction: Texas has the 75.4 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times. Washington has the 24.6 percent shot to pull off the upset, according to the projections.
Spread consensus pick: Texas -3 with 75% of bets going to the Longhorns
More: Texas vs. Washington picks by proven computer prediction model
Texas football betting trends
+ Texas is 8-4 against the spread overall this season
+ Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games
+ The under is 5-1 in Texas' last six bowl games
+ Texas is 4-0 against the spread in its last four against Pac-12 teams
Washington football betting trends
+ Huskies are 7-5 against the spread overall this season
+ The over is 5-0-1 in Huskies' last 6 games after an ATS win
+ Washington is 4-0 against the spread in its last four non-conference games
+ Huskies are 5-1 ATS in last 6 games after an ATS win
Alamo Bowl: Keys to victory
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Texas wins if: Ewers can work the Huskies' secondary and open up running lanes. Washington ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency defense, which should open up some patterns for Texas to insert its superb receiving skill, the likes of Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington in addition to tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders.
Without Robinson on the field, the Longhorns will lean on redshirt freshman Jonathon Brooks, who can find some open field against a UW run stop that allowed almost 187 rushing yards per game to teams with winning records.
Washington wins if: It protects Penix. Texas plays physical football up front defensively, even without DeMarvion Overshown, who is headed to the draft, was top five in the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense and third in the conference with 27 sacks.
Offensive line play is a real strength for Washington, which allowed just 7 sacks this year (down from 23 in 2021) and its backs average almost 5 yards per carry, both key skill sets that open things up for Penix and his two 1,000-yard targets in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan to cut defenses up with a battery of accurate intermediate pass plays.
Texas vs. Washington Prediction
Texas will likely struggle to run the football given Bijan Robinson's absence, but it's not completely lost for options, and by leaning more on throwing the ball, Ewers should be able to throw his gifted receivers open against a Huskies back seven that has been known to give up yards to quality passers.
Washington's strength is protecting the pocket and throwing the ball, even if it's going against a Longhorn front that's as good as, if not better than, the front seven it's gone against in the Pac-12.
Ewers has had his up and down moments all season, but in a game that should come down to which quarterback makes more key plays, that advantage goes to the Huskies, and the player who put the team on the map this season.
College Football HQ Alamo Bowl prediction: Washington 37, Texas 27 (Washington +3, Under 67)
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