West Virginia vs. Houston football game prediction, pick

What to expect as West Virginia and Houston square off in this Big 12 college football game with our updated prediction

A month into the 2023 college football season, West Virginia is a surprise No. 2 in the Big 12 standings, at 4-1 overall and a perfect 2-0 in conference play, and looks to take another important step forward against Houston on Friday night.

Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown came into the season on the hot seat, and, despite the opening loss at Penn State, his team has won four straight since then, averaging over 347 yards per game, but needs to improve its passing attack, which ranks 123rd nationally at 155.6 yards on average.

Second from the bottom in the conference, Houston is 0-2 in league play behind the nation's 99th scoring defense, allowing just under 30 points per game. And while it posts over 414 yards offensively, it allows more than 242 in the air on average.

West Virginia vs. Houston preview, prediction

West Virginia vs. Houston game predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Thurs., Oct. 12
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: FS1 network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

West Virginia vs. Houston game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: West Virginia -2.5
Total: 49.5 points
Moneyline: WVU -150 | HOU +120
FPI pick: West Virginia 56.1% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. Houston struggled in the opener, allowing 6 sacks and 12 pressures, but since then has surrendered just 1 sack and 12 total pressures. On the other side, West Virginia has allowed just 4.2 tackles for loss per game from opponents, ranking 29th nationally for the fewest TFLs allowed. Whichever side can generate the most pressure gains a major advantage.

2. Third down. West Virginia is 10th in college football playing defense on the money down, allowing opponents to convert 27.8 percent of the time, and it plays the best in fourth quarter, keeping the opposition to 20 percent. Houston is a respectable 30th in the nation on the attack, good for 46.1 percent on third down attempts offensively.

3. Establish the run. The Mountaineers run the ball effectively, averaging just under 192 yards per game, ranking 31st nationally and posting 4.26 yards per touch, holding the ball for over 32 minutes per game. Houston struggles against the run, ranking 96th nationally and 12th in the Big 12, but excels in the turnover margin, ranking 5th at 1.2 against opponents, its main strength on what could be long drives defensively.

West Virginia vs. Houston prediction

Houston might be the most talented offense the Mountaineers line up against in conference play this season, and it's working behind a line that has vastly improved. 

Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith will work some consistent gainers behind West Virginia's tacklers on the perimeter, but this isn't a balanced-enough attack to maintain possession down the stretch. That's what the Mountaineers can do well, especially on third down.

• West Virginia wins 30-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

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