College football bowl projections for Week 12: Predictions for playoff, New Year's games
With just two weeks of the regular season left, the important conference and College Football Playoff races are starting to get clearer.
At the top, we have four undefeated teams, but are guaranteed to finish with at least one fewer, as Ohio State and Michigan are set to renew their rivalry in the finale, with the winner a virtual certainty to play for the Big Ten Championship.
No. 1 Georgia is highly favored to run the table, having already booked a berth in the SEC Championship Game against LSU, but with a road game against Kentucky coming up before squaring off against rival Georgia Tech.
Related: College football bowl projections from SI
And then there's TCU: one of the pleasant surprises of the college football season, starting 10-0 for the first time since 2010 behind one of the sport's premier offenses, coming off a statement win at Texas, and having clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game, and with an intriguing date at Baylor coming up this week.
Meanwhile, the Group of Five took a turn on Saturday after upstart UCF upset the AAC's then-sole No. 1 team in Tulane to take control of that conference's title hunt. Both have one loss in the league, but the Knights hold tiebreakers over both Tulane and one-loss Cincinnati.
College football bowl projections
Let's take a look, first at what to expect in the final four semifinal and national championship, and second, the rest of the New Year's Six bowl games
College Football Playoff predictions
1. Georgia. Our projections indicate that the Bulldogs will defeat LSU in the SEC Championship Game and finish the season without a loss to secure the undisputed No. 1 position in the final College Football Playoff rankings.
2. Michigan. The No. 2 position belongs to the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game, that much we know, but the winner is anything but a given right now. OSU has home-field advantage, but is dealing with injuries on offense, and the Wolverines have looked like the marginally more complete team between the two, able to match Ohio State's flash with a powerful ground game.
3. TCU. With just Baylor and Iowa State left on the schedule before the Big 12 title game, it looks like the Horned Frogs are more likely than not going to run the table, as well, owing to their perceived advantage at the skill positions, in particular, and now especially their ability to win a defensive battle as last week's victory at Texas proved to the selection committee.
4. Tennessee. With either Ohio State or Michigan having to lose a game, the projected runner-up in the SEC East remains in prime position to benefit from the shift in the top four provided the Vols win out, a very likely possibility. A potential one-loss Pac-12 champion USC is in contention here, but it's hardly a guarantee that team will stay at one loss with UCLA and Notre Dame still to come, the conference title game not being a sure thing, and major questions on the defensive side of the ball.
College Football Playoff semifinals
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Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Tennessee. A rematch of the would-be Game of the Century that the Bulldogs dominated on both sides of the ball, and a chance at redemption not only for Tennessee against its rival, but for the program under Josh Heupel's management to finally take a huge step on the national stage.
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. TCU. Last time out in a semifinal, Michigan was run over by Georgia, but has responded in the year since with a powerful combination of a physical rushing attack and a strong overall defense, ranked second nationally, both of which match up well with TCU, which wants to prove the Big 12 has a future after Texas and OU leave the conference.
National Championship: Georgia vs. Michigan. Not having to play an SEC team in the semifinal should be welcome news for Michigan, who have the power to ground and pound its way into the national title game. But even with its improvements over the past year, Michigan still isn't packing the same punch that Georgia is on defense, or when judging raw speed to match with the Dawgs' skill threats on the perimeter.
National Champion: Georgia. Make it two straight natties for Kirby Smart and the Dawgs, who will take another step towards unseating Alabama as the kings of the SEC, and of college football.
New Year's Six bowl games
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Alabama. A rematch of the early College Football Playoff era's best postseason rivalry, this time for smaller stakes, pitting a likely one-loss ACC champion Clemson against a projected two-loss Alabama.
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Kansas State. We project LSU will lose the SEC Championship Game and move to three losses, but should still easily garner a New Year's bowl invite, likely against our projected Big 12 runner-up in Kansas State in what would be a rematch of last year's Texas Bowl. Both teams are in better places since then.
Cotton Bowl: North Carolina vs. UCF. Drake Maye leads an entertaining offense for the Tar Heels, but we project they will fall to Clemson in the ACC title game, a second loss, still enough to earn a spot against our projected AAC champion, the Knights, who own tiebreakers over league challengers Cincinnati and Tulane.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon. If the Buckeyes drop another one to Michigan, they'll be the Big Ten's selection to play in Pasadena against our projected Pac-12 champion, the two-loss Ducks, who we predict will defeat USC for the conference championship.
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