Playoffology: How the contenders can make the College Football Playoff
It's that time of year again as we turn to the month of November and separate the contenders from the pretenders as College Football Playoff selection approaches.
Last weekend's games helped sort things out a bit as Tennessee, Alabama, and Clemson all lost on the road, causing a shuffle in the top four of the rankings.
But we're not close to getting the semifinals straight yet, with two of the final four teams undefeated and set to play each other in the finale and LSU in position to shock the world and potentially become the first two-loss team to make the playoff.
Where do things stand in the playoff picture right now?
Playoffology: Path to the College Football Playoff
How the contenders can make the College Football Playoff
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Georgia. After its dominating home victory over then-CFP No. 1 Tennessee, the path forward for the Bulldogs is as simple as it gets: Just win, baby. There are three games left on this schedule, at Mississippi State and Kentucky, and then against Georgia Tech. Win those and then take down the challenger from the West Division in Atlanta, and a 13-0 SEC champion is the easiest pick in the book. Lose the SEC title game, and Georgia could still make it owing to quality wins over the Vols and a 49-3 thrashing of a top 10 Oregon team that's been on fire.
Big Ten champion. Which will most likely be either Ohio State or Michigan over presumptive West champ Illinois. If neither loses before the finale, then The Game will go a long way in sorting out the field. The winner is a 95% lock to make the playoff and the probable No. 2 team. But it wouldn't hurt to win these games in style as the Big Ten doesn't provide a ton of gas in the strength of schedule category.
The Big Ten East's No. 2 team. The loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game, if it's 11-1 at season's end, could have trouble staying ahead of an 11-1 Tennessee. The committee could judge the Vols' loss to Georgia, even with how ugly it was on the field, as a more "quality loss" than losing to a highly ranked Big Ten team. An 11-1 Ohio State could get some help with its win over an improved and now ranked Notre Dame that beat then-CFP No. 4 Clemson, but an 11-1 Michigan could have trouble owing to its non-conference schedule, which the selectors already sent a subtle message about with that early No. 5 ranking for UM.
TCU. After that somewhat controversial No. 7 ranking in the first CFP poll, the Horned Frogs got some major help when three teams ahead of them lost, allowing the Big 12 faves to jump into the No. 4 slot. Now, TCU enjoys the most over-used cliche in college football: it "controls its own destiny." Win out, and it'll be tough to keep an undefeated conference champion out, given the CFP's own metrics. But there's a trip to Texas this weekend and a matchup with Baylor after that. Given the Frogs' first-half struggles, a loss going forward isn't out of the question, which would be great news for other 1-loss teams in their conference title hunts.
Tennessee. In addition to its "quality loss" to Georgia, the Vols also have some quality wins: at home against Alabama, which the committee could still regard as the premier win of the season, and a dominant 40-13 win on the road to an LSU team that beat Alabama and will, in all likelihood, play for the SEC title. Big Orange could also edge out Oregon owing to its Georgia loss being much closer than the Ducks', and a road win against a then-ranked Pittsburgh.
Oregon. The 49-3 loss to Georgia in the opener is the black cloud hanging over an otherwise-brilliant debut season for Dan Lanning. It can send one of two messages to the College Football Playoff committee: 1) Oregon drastically improved in quality since then, or 2) It's the same team as it was then and the gap between the SEC and Pac-12 is just that huge. But a Pac-12 champion Oregon that beat the likes of UCLA, Utah, Washington, and probably USC for the title is in the middle of the selectors' debates.
USC. There's some controversy about the Trojans being ranked ahead of UCLA given that they don't really have any quality wins. And, despite its brilliant offensive potential, this defense has frankly kept the team in games that should not have been close. Plus, there's a loss on the road to Utah, a team that UCLA dominated head-to-head.
LSU. With wins over SEC West challengers Alabama and Ole Miss, it looks like dancin' Brian Kelly is on pace to make it to Atlanta in Year 1 on the job. It was a 2-loss LSU that nudged into the 2007 BCS title game, and it could be one that forces its way into the playoff in 2022. Win out, and the Tigers would have Ws over not just the Tide and Rebels, but defending champion Georgia. But the committee will talk over the loss to Florida State and the ugly one at home to the Vols.
ACC champion. Thanks to Clemson's flop at Notre Dame and North Carolina's loss at home to the Irish, the ACC might be out of the playoff this year. ND has taken it to the league's top two clubs with impressive wins. But watch out if Clemson wins the ACC with one loss: it beat Florida State, something LSU didn't do, and would have a win over a ranked UNC.
Alabama. This looks like the second time in the College Football Playoff era that the Crimson Tide isn't a contender. But it ain't over till it's over: Winning out, combined with LSU losing, puts Alabama in the SEC title game, but it would have to beat Georgia. None of those options seem to be the bettors' favorite right now.
College Football Playoff Rankings
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- TCU
- Tennessee
- Oregon
- LSU
- USC
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ole Miss
- UCLA
- Utah
- Penn State
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Tulane
- Texas
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
- Illinois
- UCF
- Florida State
- Kentucky
- Washington
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