College Football Playoff predictor: How the top teams can make (or miss) the CFP
We're more than midway through the college football season already, and with the Week 8 schedule coming up, it's a good time to get an early look on how the playoff picture is developing so far.
There are two weekends of action left before the College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its first national top 25 rankings, and with it our first look at the real contenders and pretenders.
The path to making the playoff is easy enough: be an undefeated conference champion in the Power 5, and you're probably in. Outside of that possibility, what does the future store for this year's actual hopefuls?
Let's see how the top teams can make (or miss) the playoff this year.
College Football Playoff predictor: How top teams can make or miss the CFP
The following are the teams with 10 percent chance or better to make the playoff, according to Football Power Index
Ole Miss Rebels
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 11.1 percent
How Ole Miss makes it: Be an undefeated or one-loss SEC champion. This team will earn a very high ranking if it wins the SEC title game, even with a loss somewhere before then, provided it beats Alabama. What the SEC West looks like going forward is very much up in the air, given that the four best teams all play each other in the coming weeks.
How Ole Miss misses it: Lose to Alabama. Even if Alabama loses the SEC title game and falls to two losses, the committee would likely pass over a one-loss Ole Miss that lost to the Crimson Tide. It would decide to keep just one SEC team rather than a second that lost to the conference runner-up.
Tennessee Volunteers
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 48.7 percent
How Tennessee makes it: Win the rest of the way and at least make the SEC Championship Game. Tennessee already owns the statement win of the college football season by defeating Alabama. And if it beats Georgia on the way to the SEC title game, UT should make it even with a loss in Atlanta, being a one-loss SEC runner-up that beat both Bama and Georgia.
How Tennessee misses it: Losing to Kentucky at home in two weeks. That makes the Georgia game an absolute must-win for the division and the playoff chase. If the Vols finish 11-1 and don't win the SEC East, they'll have to hope Georgia wins the SEC title. If a one-loss Alabama wins the conference and Georgia is 11-1 and beats Tennessee, then Big Orange is out.
Michigan Wolverines
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Chance to make College Football Playoff: 51.6 percent
How Michigan makes it: Everybody knows that Michigan's playoff hopes hinge on beating Ohio State in the season finale (provided it gets to Columbus undefeated). Beat the Buckeyes again, and the Wolverines should be favored in the Big Ten title game, and a near-lock to make the playoff as undefeated conference champion. But even a close loss at Ohio State doesn't doom Michigan here, as the selectors could look favorably at that situation, especially if the SEC runner-up has two losses.
How Michigan misses it: Lose the Big Ten championship game. A loss to any other Big Ten team would drop Michigan sharply in the eyes of most CFP selectors, more so than a one-loss SEC team that didn't win the conference, especially if that team played for the SEC title.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 52.8 percent
How Alabama makes it: Thanks to that loss against Tennessee, everything gets a lot clearer: win out and finish as a one-loss SEC champion, and the Crimson Tide is in the playoff, no questions asked. That's what worked last season, when Bama lost to Texas A&M on the road, pitched a perfect record the rest of the way, and defeated Georgia for the SEC title.
How Alabama misses it: History suggests it's just about impossible to make the playoff as a two-loss team, but there could be an exception to that rule: if the Tide loses again before the SEC title game but still somehow makes it to Atlanta and wins, the committee would be hard-pressed to exclude any SEC champion. There's an outside chance the selectors could pick a one-loss Ohio State or Michigan that played The Game close but didn't make the Big Ten title game if they're really interested in keeping a two-loss team out, but excluding an SEC champion, even at two losses, might be too much noise for the committee to endure.
Clemson Tigers
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 53.9 percent
How Clemson makes it: Finish the season undefeated and the Tigers are in. They already have two solid wins on the schedule, including over ranked division foes NC State and Wake. A one-loss ACC champion Clemson isn't a guarantee, but when looking at the other contenders — the SEC champion, the Big Ten champion, and a one-loss SEC runner-up — there could be room for Clemson if it loses the ACC title. But that's far from set in stone.
How Clemson misses it: Lose at any time before the ACC championship game, especially if TCU finishes the season undefeated and Big 12 champion or if the Pac-12 produces a perfect or one-loss champion.
Georgia Bulldogs
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Chance to make College Football Playoff: 70.7 percent
How Georgia makes it: The top team in the AP top 25 rankings has to win out to secure the top seed in the final four. There are at least three more ranked teams on Georgia's schedule and then a fourth in Atlanta. It's tough to beat that resume.
How Georgia misses it: If the Bulldogs drop a game to Tennessee at home and finish at 11-1, they could be in the mix for a playoff spot, but there are no guarantees, and keeping things in your control is ideal here. Alabama beating Tennessee in a prospective SEC title game hurts Georgia's chances, but any loss before Atlanta complicates things too much, especially if there are four conference champions in the mix.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 81.2 percent
How Ohio State makes it: Winning games against its remaining Big Ten opponents seems easy on paper when looking at this offense. Every other situation in which the Buckeyes lose, especially before the Michigan game, hurts their playoff chances.
How Ohio State misses it: If the Buckeyes finish 11-1 with a loss to Michigan, they'll need some help to make the playoff, especially if there are undefeated conference champions around the country plus a one-loss SEC runner-up. Any loss to another Big Ten team other than Michigan would seriously hurt OSU's playoff resume in the eyes of the committee, even with a Big Ten title and other contenders in the mix.