Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings for Rivalry Week: Final Four set for a change

College Football HQ predicts the selection committee's Top 25 rankings, with an expected change in the top four

Looking back on last Saturday's action and ahead to Rivalry Week and the regular season finale, and you can argue that change is in order in the top four of the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The selection committee has shown before that it's willing to disregard the previous week's work and re-order their best teams after watching the results on the field, and this week could be more proof of that.

• Washington stayed undefeated and clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game after taking down Oregon State on the road
• Oregon is in position to take the other side of that matchup in Vegas if it can do the same against the Beavers in the Civil War game this weekend
• Ohio State, Michigan remain perfect heading into The Game with a spot in the Big Ten title game and a College Football Playoff berth on the line
• Georgia pasted Tennessee on the road, further cementing its claim to be No. 1 after rattling off three-straight important victories against ranked SEC teams
• Florida State, Louisville will meet for the ACC championship, but the Seminoles' playoff hopes may be in peril after a brutal injury to quarterback Jordan Travis

Let's take a stab at predicting the College Football Playoff rankings moving into Rivalry Week.

10. Missouri

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Previous ranking: No. 9

It may seem counter-intuitive to drop Missouri a spot in the rankings for winning, but the committee may apply the eye test metric to its performance against Florida, which came down to converting a long fourth down and getting a last-minute field goal. The finale against Arkansas will determine if the Tigers can stay ahead of Ole Miss and earn a New Year's bowl bid.

9. Louisville

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Previous ranking: No. 10

The committee could feel inclined to move the Cardinals ahead of Mizzou considering the extra weight last week's win against Miami had. By escaping with a 7-point victory, Louisville was able to clinch a place in the ACC Championship Game, what the selectors would call a greater quality win. Plus, the Cardinals have one loss, while Missouri has two. No playoff for this team, but an NY6 bowl is well within reach.

8. Alabama

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Previous ranking: No. 8

Alabama seems on course to miss its second-straight College Football Playoff, given how far it is down in the rankings, combined with it being unlikely that many teams ranked ahead will fall far enough to allow room for the Tide to move up. But there's room to impress the committee enough to make them entertain the idea: by beating up Auburn, and then knocking off Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. A path of sorts is there, but it relies on a lot of other chaos, too.

7. Texas

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Previous ranking: No. 7

The consensus second-best one-loss team in the eyes of the committee, the Longhorns maintain their spot in the top 10, and hold a win at Alabama in their back pocket, one the selectors really like, especially with how well the Tide has played since then. Texas needs to beat Texas Tech this week to make the Big 12 title game, and while winning out doesn't guarantee a playoff spot, losing certainly isn't an option.

6. Oregon

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Previous ranking: No. 6

Oregon is the No. 1 ranked total offense in college football and is top 10 in passing, scoring offense, and scoring defense, dominating opponents ever since the three-point loss to Washington mid-season. Despite that loss, the Ducks are in position to jump in the rankings and make the playoff if they can make the Pac-12 title game and beat Washington in a rematch.

5. Florida State

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Previous ranking: No. 4

For two weeks now, we've predicted that Florida State will drop out of the top four, but this week does seem like it'll really happen. No, not because of quarterback Jordan Travis' injury. And nor should it be for that reason. The selectors don't really take injuries into account, instead looking at the whole team performance. But some close games of late, combined with the Huskies' play in that time, might convince the committee to change course. That said, if the Noles win the ACC title and finished undefeated, there's no argument for keeping them out.

4. Washington

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Previous ranking: No. 5

The committee should follow the Coaches and AP top 25 voters this week and vault Washington ahead of Florida State after beating four ranked opponents. The Huskies earned a hard-fought win at a ranked Oregon State last week and will play for the Pac-12 title. Win, and they're in. But everything hinges on Vegas.

3. Michigan

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Previous ranking: No. 3

Arguments have been made that Michigan should never have been ranked behind Ohio State to start with, but a close result at Maryland will ensure that it stays put this week. Undefeated heading into The Game, the Wolverines control their destiny. By beating Ohio State and then Iowa for the Big Ten title, what would be the team's third-straight in Indy, Michigan is in.

2. Ohio State

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Previous ranking: No. 2

Everything comes down to The Game for the scarlet and gray, who have passed every test up to now and have done so despite a relative decline in offensive output, getting instead some greatly improved play from a defense that ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring. Ohio State was the committee's first No. 1 team thanks to a pair of wins against ranked teams, but both those wins have lost some luster since then while the defending champions have overtaken the Bucks in terms of résumé. If OSU can beat Michigan and then Iowa for the Big Ten championship, it's in. But unlike last season, it's unlikely it can get in with one loss given all the other competition.

1. Georgia

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Previous ranking: No. 1

No reason at all for Georgia to budge from the top spot after dominating a ranked Tennessee team on the road, passing with flying colors those three late-season tests against ranked opposition that the committee was watching so closely. Georgia has won 28 straight games, and are favored win a 29th this week in Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. Then comes a date with Alabama for the SEC title.

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