Predicting the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2023

Locking in our predictions for the initial College Football Playoff rankings as the selection committee reveals its first poll of the 2023 season

We're past the halfway point of the 2023 college football season and as we move into the month of November, the CFP Selection Committee is set to announce its first Top 25 rankings of the season as division and conference races start to heat up.

College Football Playoff selectors create top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field.

The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head game results
• Results vs. teams in top 25 rankings
• Results vs. common opponents
• Conference championships

College Football Playoff electors also use advanced analytics to gauge teams’ play, but those numbers don’t play a formal role in the committee creating its top 25 rankings.

10. Ole Miss

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AP ranking: No. 11

Record: 7-1 (4-1 SEC)

Why the ranking? The Rebels boast two wins over current AP top 25 teams, winning on the road against Tulane and at home in a shootout with LSU, which is likely the best 2-loss team in the country. Penn State could be in contention for No. 10 here, but Ole Miss' wins are more impressive than the Nittany Lions' (to Iowa), and certainly better than PSU's loss at Ohio State.

9. Oklahoma

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AP ranking: No. 10

Record: 7-1 (4-1 Big 12)

Why the ranking? The win over Texas is noteworthy for the selectors, which could in theory put the Sooners ahead of both the Longhorns and Alabama, who Texas beat. But OU doesn't have a victory against a Power Five non-conference opponent and the relative decline on defense the last few weeks became a problem after the loss at Kansas. That could drop Oklahoma in the "eye test" department.

8. Alabama

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AP ranking: No. 8

Record: 7-1 (5-0 SEC)

Why the ranking? The head-to-head loss against Texas at home will loom somewhat large for the committee, but otherwise the Tide has improved against a quality schedule of SEC opponents, beating a now 7-1 Ole Miss team and taking down Tennessee, two AP top 25 ranked teams.

7. Texas

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AP ranking: No. 7

Record: 7-1 (4-1 Big 12)

Why the ranking? The win at Alabama will be the Longhorns' most important by far in the committee room, plus they have a win over a Kansas team that should be ranked and that just beat Oklahoma. All but two of Texas' wins have been against FBS opponents with winning records.

6. Oregon

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AP ranking: No. 6

Record: 7-1 (4-1 Pac-12)

Why the ranking? One of the top offenses, one of the top defenses, and college football's most accurate quarterback. That's a triple threat that should ensure the Ducks sit comfortably inside the top 10, especially after a dominant victory on the road against a good Utah, the team's fourth win away from home. 

5. Washington

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AP ranking: No. 5

Record: 8-0 (5-0 Pac-12)

Why the ranking? Some things are against the Huskies here, such as their relative struggles the last two games, against Arizona State and Stanford, that included offensive hiccups and lack of momentum, and the fact that they have just 2 wins against Power Five teams with winning records. But their explosive offense and the win over an Oregon team that just pounded Utah, could win the argument and put Washington in the top five.

4. Michigan

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AP ranking: No. 2

Record: 8-0 (5-0 Big Ten)

Why the ranking? Nobody is impressed with the Wolverines' strength of schedule, but they've passed those easy tests with increasingly flying colors, scoring 40-plus points in each of the last four games and over 50 in the last two. Michigan is top five in scoring offense and defense, but the selectors may knock it for the schedule.

3. Florida State

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AP ranking: No. 4

Record: 8-0 (6-0 ACC)

Why the ranking? One of the most efficient teams offensively and defensively this season, the Seminoles are the clear favorite to run the table and win the ACC championship, even if wins over Duke and Clemson don't look as great as they did before. But Florida State has an ace in the hole in the early season victory over LSU, a 21-point statement over a team currently in the SEC West title race again. 

2. Georgia

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AP ranking: No. 1

Record: 8-0 (5-0 SEC)

Why the ranking? There's precedent for the selection committee disregarding an AP No. 1 ranking in their own poll. Namely last season, when AP No. 1 Georgia opened up at No. 3 in the first CFP rankings. The biggest wins here are against Kentucky and Florida, neither of which will likely be in the playoff poll, which could theoretically push the Bulldogs down a spot. But the offensive improvements and the continued dominance on defense could move the selectors to keep Georgia at No. 1.

1. Ohio State

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AP ranking: No. 3

Record: 8-0 (5-0 Big Ten)

Why the ranking? There's nothing the selectors love more than perceived quality wins, and the Buckeyes boast two of those, against top 10 teams, beating Notre Dame on the road and pulling away against Penn State, which is No. 1 in college football in total defensive efficiency, at home. And while this isn't the kind of explosive OSU offense we're used to seeing, the defense has improved markedly, ranking 2nd nationally by allowing 10 points per game.

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