Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Week 11

What the next College Football Playoff rankings could look like as we move into the Week 11 schedule of games on Saturday

We're already 10 weeks into the college football season and time to get our first look at what the next playoff top 25 rankings will look like.

Expect a lot of change at the top of the playoff poll this week after three top 10 teams went down, including two in the top four: the No. 1 Volunteers on the road to Georgia and No. 4 Clemson, which lost against an unranked Notre Dame.

Related: College Football Playoff top 25 rankings schedule for 2022 season

The selectors don't go strictly by the AP top 25 rankings or the Coaches Poll, instead preferring to start from scratch in a way, using their own judgment and expertise to gauge the best teams in the country up to now.

Here's your look, first at how the selectors create the top 25 rankings, and second at what those rankings might look like.

How the College Football Playoff committee creates the top 25 rankings

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College Football Playoff selectors create top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field. The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head scores
• Results vs. teams in Top 25 rankings
• Results vs. common opponents
• Conference championships

College Football Playoff selectors also use advanced analytics to judge the quality of teams, but those numbers don’t play a formal role in the committee creating its top 25 rankings.

Predicting the second College Football Playoff rankings

25. Baylor. A few contenders for this spot, including Florida State, Cincinnati, or even Kentucky, but the defending Big 12 champs have recovered from a midseason slump, winning three straight, including over Kansas and Oklahoma.

24. Liberty. Huge Freeze has the Flames at 8-1 and coming off a road win against an SEC West team after knocking off a favored Arkansas.

23. UCF. The 6-2 Knights are sitting at second in the ACC ahead of a matchup at conference leader Tulane.

22. Notre Dame. Beating No. 4 Clemson at home is enough to get back in the rankings; the Irish have defeated both ACC division leaders now this season.

21. Kansas State. Suddenly the Wildcats have dropped two of their last three, but still owns a 48-0 win over a ranked Oklahoma State, and all three of their losses are to top 25 ranked teams.

20. Texas. Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns move to second in the Big 12 with a win at a ranked K-State and have TCU up next at home.

19. Washington. A win over a then-ranked Oregon State at home moves the Huskies to 7-2 with a huge date at Oregon coming up.

18. Illinois. A loss to Michigan State proves this team is nowhere near ready for primetime, but it is still the odds-on fave to go to Indy as the Big Ten West champ.

17. NC State. A home win over a ranked, if reeling, Wake Forest should be enough to nudge the Wolfpack up a few spots in the rankings, especially when watching this defense rise to the occasion after Devin Leary's injury.

16. Tulane. The current leaders in the AAC are in position to make a statement if they can beat challenger UCF this weekend head to head.

15. Penn State. 0-2 against the class of the Big Ten East, this team can still run the table going forward and get to 10 wins.

14. Utah. The loss at Florida doesn't look great right now, but the defending Pac-12 champs still play a physical brand of football.

13. North Carolina. Just one win away from clinching the Coastal, the CFP pickers could jump the Tar Heels over the 2-loss Utes.

12. UCLA. Still a contender in the Pac-12, the Bruins have won three straight since the loss at Oregon.

11. Ole Miss. The Rebels have a shot to deliver the decisive blow if they beat the Crimson Tide at home this weekend and, while there's still an outside chance this team can make a run for the SEC West title, that loss at LSU still sticks out.

Outside looking in

10. Alabama. There are plenty of hot takes flying around after the Tide dropped its second game, but it was still by one point in overtime on the road, enough for the committee to argue it belongs in the top 10, but not without some arguments.

9. USC. Still just one point away from being undefeated, the Trojans are a mixed bag of brilliant offense led by a cast of stars at the skill positions and a very patchy defense that, while aggressive taking the ball away early this season, has also kept inferior Pac-12 teams in a lot of these games, especially a not-great Cal team this past week at home.

8. Clemson. The loss at Notre Dame put an end to thinking this offense made any real structural improvements, but the playoff committee won't want to punish what remains the 1-loss ACC favorite too heavily.

7. LSU. Beating Alabama, however "down" the Crimson Tide looks, is still the definition of a quality win for the selection committee, who could have all it needs to jump the SEC West favorites above the Trojans.

First two out

6. Oregon. Imagine where the Ducks could have been ranked this week if they didn't schedule Georgia for the season opener. Still, despite that 49-3 thrashing, this is still the top team in the Pac-12 title hunt, winning eight straight games and scoring over 40 points in each of those wins. Bo Nix is on a tear, throwing for 22 touchdowns against three picks while running for 13 scores in that time.

5. Tennessee. College football's top offense that had run through everything on its schedule had no answer for Georgia's sweltering front seven alignment and didn't score a TD until it didn't matter. A somewhat surprising effort from the Vols, and one that keeps them on the outside of the playoff hunt, but still within striking distance owing to what the committee will regard as a "quality loss," better than anything a team in a conference not named the SEC can boast.

First four in

College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions: Who's in? / USA Today Images

4. TCU. Had the Volunteers looked better in the loss at Georgia, the committee would have had an argument ready to keep them in the top four and keep TCU out. And make no mistake: they still could do that after proving they don't respect the Frogs or the Big 12 right now and after another slow first half start against Texas Tech this past week. 

3. Michigan. You could make a convincing case that this is actually the most complete team in the Big Ten when judging Michigan's total capacity to move the ball and stop teams on the other side, fielding the No. 2 overall defense in college football, the No. 4 rushing offense, and is second with 29 rushing touchdowns. UM played Rutgers close last weekend, even trailing at halftime, but exploded after the break to stay undefeated.

2. Ohio State. Critics will argue the weather wasn't entirely to blame for the Buckeyes' close win at Northwestern as much as just a generally poor performance, especially at the lines, where OSU wasn't as physical as it could have been. And while that's something the selection committee will take into consideration, they'll also be reluctant to move the No. 2 team after it wins, especially one with Ohio State's brand.

1. Georgia. No debates around the No. 1 team in college football right now after the Bulldogs used a big-play offense and a sweltering defensive effort to pull out a dominant win over the former CFP No. 1 Volunteers, grounding the nation's top offense into dust and keeping it out of the end zone until late in the fourth quarter. The favorites to win the SEC, Georgia looks like a lock for the playoff.

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