College Football Playoff scenarios: Who's in, who's out heading into Week 13
Chaos attempted to intervene in the top four on Saturday, but the current favorites in the College Football Playoff race all stayed undefeated. Though not without some real drama.
Ohio State held off a very inspired Maryland team on the road, while Michigan withstood a key injury and needed a late comeback to take down Illinois at home, and TCU took its game at Baylor down to the very last second on a field goal.
Now there's just one game left in the regular season, one of which pits two of the current top four in the playoff rankings as Ohio State and Michigan renew The Game, with the Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff on the line.
Where do things stand in the College Football Playoff race right now? Here are the most likely CFP scenarios heading into Rivalry Week.
College Football Playoff scenarios for Week 13
College Football Playoff predictions
Scenario No. 1
Who's in?
Who's out? Clemson, Ohio State/Michigan loser
The most likely playoff picture is also the most predictable. Georgia should be a heavy favorite against rival Georgia Tech in the finale, and a moderate favorite against LSU in the SEC Championship Game, projected to finish undefeated.
Likewise, the winner in Columbus will be the major favorite to fend off whichever team the Big Ten West sends to Indy and finish with a perfect record and the sure thing at No. 2.
TCU should defeat Iowa State in the regular season finale, but isn't a guarantee in the Big 12 Championship Game, against likely Kansas State.
After taking down UCLA this week, USC clinched a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game and has the offense to finish the season as a one-loss league champion, especially since the Trojans would have defeated Notre Dame, something a probable one-loss ACC champion Clemson didn't do.
Scenario No. 2
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Who's in?
- Georgia
- Ohio State/Michigan
- USC or TCU
- Ohio State/Michigan loser or Clemson
Who's out? USC or TCU, who would have lost another game
Clemson is still very much in the College Football Playoff picture, projected to finish the season as the ACC champion with one loss. But the loss at Notre Dame does stick out. It looks like a more "quality loss" given how well the Irish have played recently, and will look even better if they beat USC on the road.
Clemson also benefited majorly from Tennessee's ugly loss at South Carolina, especially given it's playing the Gamecocks this week in the finale. A dominant showing in that game would show the committee that there's a notable discrepancy between Clemson and the Vols, who also lost at Georgia.
But if Ohio State vs. Michigan comes down to the last second and is an evenly played game, that could move the committee to keep the loser in the top four, even above an ACC champion Clemson. OSU would have the better case in that scenario, given its win over the then-No. 5 Irish in Week 1, and Michigan's relatively weak non-conference schedule.
Scenario No. 3
Who's in?
- Georgia
- Ohio State/Michigan
- Clemson
- Ohio State/Michigan
Who's out? USC and TCU, both of whom would have lost again
It seems pretty straightforward that the College Football Playoff would not be interested in keeping a two-loss USC, even one that won the Pac-12 title, and especially a TCU team that it was (rightly or wrongly) skeptical of all season, owing to close games.
Clemson would get in by winning the ACC title and undefeated SEC champion Georgia would get the Ohio State/Michigan loser.
Scenario No. 4
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What if: LSU wins the SEC Championship?
Who's in?
- Ohio State/Michigan
- USC
- LSU
- Clemson
Who's out? Ohio State/Michigan loser and potentially even ACC champion Clemson
LSU would make history as the first two-loss College Football Playoff if it beats Georgia, as the committee doesn't feel it can exclude any SEC champion. Especially one that would have defeated Alabama and Georgia in the same season.
The committee would have a decision to make whether to keep SEC runner-up Georgia, thereby probably knocking out a one-loss Pac-12 champion USC, or make a choice between an SEC runner-up Georgia and that USC team. That is, all provided TCU wins out and claims the Big 12 title.
But if TCU loses along the way and USC wins out, the committee could keep the Trojans and Bulldogs, the latter potentially even over a one-loss ACC champion Clemson, whose loss to Notre Dame the committee may take into consideration, in the event of an SEC champion LSU.
Or, it could stick to its own criteria of valuing conference champions and simply take the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, and ACC champs, leaving out Georgia.
Moral of the story: There's a lot of football left to be played and sort things out. We'll know more after next Saturday and all we'll need to know after Championship Saturday the week after that.
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