College Football Playoff rankings predictions for Week 12
Expect some important changes in the next College Football Playoff rankings this week, but probably not at the top with the highest-ranked teams all winning.
But eight teams in the top 25 poll lost over the weekend, including three in the top 15, and one in the top 10 (looking at you, Oregon).
With that loss at home to Washington, the Ducks likely blew what there was of any chance at making the College Football Playoff, but are still in the thick of the Pac-12 Championship race.
What they're working with: Last week's College Football Playoff rankings
What will this week's poll look like? Here's our guess at how the selection committee will rank teams as we head into the Week 12 slate of games.
Predicting the third College Football Playoff rankings
25. Illinois. The committee could dump the Illini after losing two straight, or it could keep them in so Michigan plays a ranked team this week, and with a likely win, would give the Wolverines another boost in the strength of schedule department at year's end.
24. Coastal Carolina. Expect some love for the 9-1 Chanticleers, who just earned a spot in the Sun Belt title game, but are missing injured quarterback Grayson McCall for this important stretch.
23. Oklahoma State. The two-game losing skid where the Pokes scored 16 total points is over, and there's still an outside chance at the Big 12 Championship Game, with Bedlam up next.
22. Cincinnati. A close win over ECU keeps Cincy in the conference title hunt, but there's already a loss to UCF and a date with Tulane in the finale.
21. Tulane. A loss at home to UCF keeps the Wave from sole possession of first place in the AAC, but this team still belongs in the rankings with a game against Cincinnati to close the regular season that will sort things out.
20. Florida State. Two major wins have the Seminoles riding high behind a strong rushing attack going into a date with Louisiana.
19. UCLA. Still technically in the Pac-12 chase, the Bruins should get knocked down a peg or two after a surprising loss at home to unranked Arizona.
18. UCF. Wins over Tulane and Cincy have the Knights in position to take the AAC, especially behind the inspired play of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.
17. Notre Dame. Winning four straight, including against then-CFP No. 4 Clemson and then against rival Navy, have the Irish in the right direction, if inconsistently.
16. Kansas State. A four-TD win over Baylor should have the Wildcats nudging up the rankings, as they slide into second place in the Big 12 with a tiebreaker over OSU and Baylor.
15. Washington. Expect a big jump for the Huskies after knocking off the 1-loss Ducks on the road and other losses for teams higher in the rankings.
14. Ole Miss. The Rebels are kicking themselves after dropping a close one to the Tide at home, but they shouldn't get punished too severely.
13. Utah. Stepping on Stanford is expected from the Utes, but the loss to UCLA, a common opponent with Oregon (and who Oregon beat), doesn't look so good right now after the Bruins' loss to Arizona.
12. Penn State. A big win over Maryland doesn't tell us anything more about the Nittany Lions, but a 10-win season is still well within reach.
11. Oregon. The loss at home to Washington hurts, and at two losses the College Football Playoff seems out of reach, but the Ducks can move back into the top 10 if they beat a ranked Utah this weekend.
10. North Carolina. Booking a date in the ACC title bout against Clemson, combined with other teams' losses, is good for some movement up the rankings.
9. Clemson. Beating up on Louisville keeps the Tigers at one loss and earned a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Don't lose again, and this team could be hovering up around the top four of the rankings come selection time.
8. Alabama. Defense carried the day late in a road win over a ranked Ole Miss and a good New Year's bowl bid is still within grasp for the Crimson Tide.
7. USC. A big win over Colorado is expected, but we'll see if this defense has what it takes to tangle with UCLA and Notre Dame with the Pac-12 title game and an outside shot at a playoff berth on the line.
6. LSU. A close win over Arkansas, combined with Bama's win, puts the Tigers in the SEC title game in Brian Kelly's first year. Win in Atlanta, and anything seems possible in the playoff picture.
5. Tennessee. Big Orange stepped on Missouri to rebound from the Georgia loss and remains right on the edge waiting for a top four team to slip up. Ohio State or Michigan will have to, and TCU isn't a sure thing, either.
4. TCU. The committee should like how the Frogs played a defensive-oriented game on the road, pulling out the close win to stay undefeated and clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game.
3. Michigan. 10-0 for the first time since 2006 thanks in part to a merciless rushing attack, the Wolverines handled Nebraska at home and get Illinois next before finishing in Columbus.
2. Ohio State. A rebound for this terrific offense in a beatdown over Indiana, but there's some concern with both the Buckeyes' running backs nursing injuries.
1. Georgia. A big win at Mississippi State clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game for what looks like the only sure thing in the College Football Playoff race.
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