Predicting college football's new playoff as 2024 spring ball begins

After college football expanded its playoff to 12 teams, and as spring ball kicks off around the country, let's check in with our early postseason predictions

This postseason will make history as college football will debut a new, expanded 12-team playoff format that includes first-round games to be played on campus in a move that is expected to dramatically widen the pool of potential national championship contenders to a famously top-heavy sport.

The so-called "5+7" model will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions qualifying for the playoff, followed by seven at-large teams that are the next highest on the selection committee's final rankings. The four highest-ranked teams will receive a first-round bye while the on-campus games are played.

Now, let's move into a very early Playoffology and get a look at our current College Football Playoff predictions for a historic 2024 season.

1. Georgia

Our projected SEC champion with Carson Beck returning at quarterback to lead a solid offense, albeit against a harder schedule than last season.

2. Ohio State

Ryan Day has a loaded roster thanks to a big transfer portal haul and this should be the year he finally gets past a Michigan team in the midst of change.

3. Clemson

After missing out on three straight playoffs, the Tigers could be in for a jump in the new format that rewards league titles, and with a strong defense looking to pair with an offense that should build on last year's experience.

4. Utah

The favorite to win the new-look, but fairly competitive Big 12 thanks to a strong returning defense and veteran quarterback Cam Rising back from injury.

5. Texas

Our projection for the SEC runner-up this season thanks to vital returning experience at quarterback, notable additions at wide receiver, and another strong recruiting effort.

6. Oregon

Don't be surprised if the Ducks win the expanded Big Ten title with a loaded offense led by Dillon Gabriel and another physical, imposing defense.

7. Alabama

Whatever step backwards the Crimson Tide will take since Nick Saban's retirement, it won't be too great to keep this roster out of playoff contention, especially not in an expanded field. But there are still questions around whether offensive guru Kalen DeBoer can cultivate a championship-caliber defense.

8. Michigan

Jim Harbaugh and most of what brought the Wolverines their national title are gone, but Sherrone Moore steps in with some direct experience, going 4-0 as interim when Harbaugh was suspended. And he's got work to do replenishing his lines and the quarterback position.

9. Ole Miss

Lane Kiffin was once again aggressive in the transfer portal, adding critical pieces on defense that, combined with Jaxson Dart's return at quarterback, put the Rebels in contention for the expanded playoff.

10. Notre Dame

Defense, especially against the pass, will be the strength of this Irish team as Marcus Freeman looks to install new offensive play-caller Mike Denbrock, a new-look line that includes new edge blockers, and transfer quarterback Riley Leonard.

11. Penn State

After playing third fiddle to OSU and Michigan in the Big Ten, the expanded playoff should create a window for a Nittany Lions team that eclipsed 10 wins the last 2 seasons. PSU's excellent backfield returns intact and enough pieces are back from what was college football's No. 1 defense a year ago.

12. Liberty

Our predicted Conference USA champion, especially after earning the re-commitment of quarterback Kaidon Salter, who initially entered the transfer portal. 

First-Round Games

(12) Liberty at (5) Texas
Winner plays at (4) Utah

(11) Penn St. at (6) Oregon
Winner plays at (3) Clemson

(10) Notre Dame at (7) Alabama
Winner plays at (2) Ohio State

(9) Ole Miss at (8) Michigan
Winner plays at (1) Georgia

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