College football rankings: Ohio State jumps Michigan in ESPN top 25 for Rivalry Week

Big Ten rivals vie for No. 1 as both enter Rivalry Week undefeated as the ESPN top 25 college football rankings are updated

Author:
James Parks
Publish date:
Nov 19, 2023 8:44 AM EST

After another action-packed weekend of college football, it's time to update the various incarnations of the top 25 rankings, and that includes ESPN's Football Power Index poll, one that courted controversy among fans for some time based on its unconventional method of ranking teams. Where do things stand for Rivalry Week?

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings: ESPN top 25 poll for Rivalry Week

Highest win projection? That honor goes to Liberty this week, as the leader in Conference USA is expected to win 12.7 games. Florida State is second with 12.5 wins, followed by Georgia at 12.4, and Washington at 12.2.

Texas A&M? Really? Remember, these rankings measure a team's expected point margin per game on a net points scale, so the Aggies' big wins over the last two weeks, by 41 against MSU and 28 against Abilene Christian, have inflated the number.

Oklahoma ahead of Texas? The Sooners edge out the Longhorns by 0.9 points on this scale thanks to the latter's close wins of late, but Texas is still the favorite to win the Big 12 title and the league's best chance at the playoff at 29.5%.

Likewise for Washington. Despite being a consensus top-five team in most polls and rankings, its close wins have cut into their point margins, but Washington has the second-best chance to win the Pac-12, at 35.7% behind Oregon (59.7%), and to make the playoff, 33.7%, second to Oregon at 51%.

Conference champions? Who are the favorites to win their respective leagues?

Conference USA: Liberty 82.9%
AAC: SMU 79.1%
ACC: Florida State 69.9%
Sun Belt: Troy 67.3%
Pac-12: Oregon 59.7%
Big 12: Texas 59%
MAC: Toledo 56.4%
Big Ten: Michigan 51.3%
SEC: Georgia 51.1%
Mountain West: Boise State 40.7%

Playoff prediction? In this week's model, the football power index projects defending national champion Georgia to lead the way, followed by a presumptive ACC champion and two Big Ten rivals.

Georgia (75.5%)
Ohio State (63.5%)
Florida State (60.4%)
Michigan (58.9%)

In this projection, Georgia would face off against Michigan in one of the semifinal games, while Ohio State would meet Florida State in the other.

But there's a dead heat when it comes to the national championship, as Georgia and Ohio State are tied at 21.4 percent to win it. Given that the index favors the Buckeyes by two points in the net points scale, we can project that Ohio State would be favored.

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