College football rankings: ESPN reveals Week 1 top 25 poll

Your complete look at the ESPN top 25 college football rankings prediction as we kick off the 2023 season

As we come off the traditional Week 0 slate and move finally into Week 1 proper of the 2023 college football season, that makes it a perfect time to get a look at the rankings around the country. We already saw the first official AP top 25 poll going live, and while Georgia is the clear No. 1, the defending champs aren't the top choice on every ballot. What teams are in a position to challenge the Bulldogs?

Related: Overrated, underrated AP top 25 preseason teams

• ESPN has announced its Football Power Index top 25 poll for the 2023 season, a major turning point in the lead-up to actual football, giving fans an early look at where teams are situated according to the analytics and who is in contention as we move closer to the season.
• The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team's future performance
• Rankings and predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team's season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team's schedule

College Football Rankings: ESPN Reveals Week 1 Poll

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25. Florida

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Where Florida was: 6-7 (3-5 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: Not ranked

Where Florida is: Good question, considering the Gators' roster coming into Week 1 against Utah will look very little like the one we saw last time out. Florida has lost something like two dozen players to the transfer portal and Anthony Richardson to the draft. Graham Mertz transferred into UF from Wisconsin, bringing some experience to the quarterback position, but not a ton of statistical success, either. Florida should play hard-nosed defense for the most part, and will run the ball with success.

24. Kentucky

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Where Kentucky was: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: Not ranked

Where Kentucky is: The introduction of Devin Leary at quarterback, paired with offensive coordinator Liam Coen, is a major development for the Wildcats as they look to get back in the SEC East convo, but how well will Leary be protected, especially coming off the injury? UK scored some solid transfer blockers, in particular at tackle, and if they can keep the QB upright, he should pair well with the Wildcats' young receiving targets.

23. Washington

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Where Washington was: 11-2 (7-2 Pac-12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 10

Where Washington is: Very happy that Michael Penix elected to return to school for 2023, ensuring that the most productive passer in college football from a year ago has a chance to repeat that success. He can, given the Huskies also bring back most of its receiving production, especially Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan, the first pairing to surpass 1,000 receiving yards each in UW history. But how well can the team fill its personnel voids on defense to make a run at the Pac-12 title?

22. North Carolina

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Where North Carolina was: 9-5 (6-2 ACC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 21

Where North Carolina is: UNC returns one of college football's premier talents at quarterback in Drake Maye, some vital continuity for the team's offense, but new coordinator Chip Lindsey has some real work to do patching things up at both tackle positions after the line allowed 40 sacks and far too much pressure down the stretch a year ago, and the Tar Heels need to reload at wide receiver after losing Josh Downs to the NFL. Carolina also needs to beef up its scrimmage defense after it ranked last in the ACC and tied for 128th nationally with just 1.21 sacks per game.

21. Miami

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Where Miami was: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

AP top 25 ranking: Not ranked

Where Miami is: Running back and wide receiver should improve marginally this season for the Hurricanes as their offensive line projects to be better, in particular at tackle, good news for Tyler Van Dyke, who played well below his potential a year ago and Miami's offense struggled as a result, scoring under 17 points in five games. Safety and linebacker are points of pride for this defense as Kamren Kinchens and James Williams project as one of the best safety duos in the nation.

20. Texas Tech

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Where Texas Tech was: 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)

AP top 25 ranking: Not ranked

Where Texas Tech is: One of the up and coming teams to watch in the Big 12 title race this season, the Red Raiders finished Joey Maguire's first season as head coach by winning their last four games, including against Oklahoma and in the bowl game over Ole Miss. Tech boasts dynamic speed at the skill positions on offense, but questions remain around a defense that hasn't played its best the last several years and just lost its best player in edge rusher Tyree Wilson. At quarterback, Tech returns Tyler Shough, who is 8-0 in games he has started and finished and has 3,879 career passing yards with 29 touchdowns.

19. TCU

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Where TCU was: 13-2 (9-0 Big 12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 17

Where TCU is: Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston are all gone from the Frogs' brilliant College Football Playoff team, among eight departing players to the draft in total, making Sonny Dykes' job harder going into 2023. But with some key transfer portal pickups, including receiver JoJo Earle, tailback Trey Sanders, and tackle Tommy Brockermeyer, among others. TCU should stay in the Big 12 title hunt, likely with Chandler Morris returning at quarterback.

18. Wisconsin

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Where Wisconsin was: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 19

Where Wisconsin is: There's a lot to like about the changes that Wisconsin has made in an eventful offseason, hiring Luke Fickell away from Cincinnati as head coach and his bringing on Phil Longo as offensive coordinator. Add in transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai — who had over 7,100 yards passing and 72 touchdown passes the last two seasons — and transfer receivers Bryson Green and C.J. Williams, and the Badgers are poised to spread Big Ten defenses out in a big way. That's in addition to returning tailback Braelon Allen, the thousand-yard rusher who will get some pressure taken off him to help balance things out. Watch for a major litmus test on Oct. 28 as Wisconsin welcomes Ohio State to Camp Randall.

17. Texas A&M

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Where Texas A&M was: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 23

Where Texas A&M is: Hoping to get this thing back on track after a brutal showing last fall despite signing a historically-promising recruiting class. A&M lost three 5-star and 18 four-star players to the portal, the NFL Draft, or to graduation, but also added three 5-star and 12 four-star players from recruiting and the portal, so on balance the talent transfers could even out on this roster. Now comes the task of getting the results, with the added wrinkle of A&M bringing on Bobby Petrino to call the plays on offense (or at least will have something to do with it after Jimbo Fisher declined to really define Petrino's role), a development well worth watching this fall.

16. Ole Miss

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Where Ole Miss was: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 22

Where Ole Miss is: Still with Lane Kiffin as head coach despite some persistent rumors he would take the Auburn job, and with the most interesting quarterback competition in college football this preseason. Jaxson Dart returns after a sloppy end to last season as the Rebels lost five of their last six games, not scoring over 30 points in any of them, and now he's joined by Oklahoma State veteran transfer Spencer Sanders in his last year of eligibility, along with LSU transfer Walker Howard. The return of Quinshon Judkins, the SEC's best tailback who powered for over 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground a year ago, is a major plus for the Rebs' offense.

15. Tennessee

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Where Tennessee was: 11-2 (6-2 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 12

Where Tennessee is: Most rankings have the Vols hovering around the top 10 considering the talent they just lost. The core of college football's No. 1 ranked total offense is gone, including quarterback Hendon Hooker and receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman. That, combined with UT's considerable defensive struggles on the back end a year ago, ranking 121st in pass defense, could result in a minor step backwards. But quarterback Joe Milton has a potentially major arm, provided he can get a little more accurate, as does incoming 5-star signal caller Nico Iamaleava, and Big Orange returns the bulk of its talented rushing rotation from last season, too.

14. Florida State

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Where Florida State was: 10-3 (5-3 ACC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 8

Where Florida State is: Mike Norvell may have finally figured this thing out after bringing the Seminoles their first 10-win season since 2016 and, crucially, a lot of the skill that helped do that is back: quarterback Jordan Travis, receiver Johnny Wilson, a gifted running back room, and edge rusher Jared Verse. Add in transfer corner Deuce Cypress, the top transfer at his position, deep threat wideout Keon Coleman, and tight end Jaheim Bell, and Florida State is poised to make a run at the ACC title right now.

13. Oregon

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Where Oregon was: 10-3 (7-2 Pac-12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 15

Where Oregon is: Bo Nix returns at quarterback after piling on 3,594 yards with 44 total touchdowns, but the Ducks also lost four offensive line starters and crucial defensive pieces. Dan Lanning recovered with a reunion of sorts, adding transfer edge rusher Jordan Burch from South Carolina, a former 5-star prospect Lanning recruited when he was coordinator at Georgia. Wide receiver Traeshon Holden is a key pickup, as is offensive tackle Ajani Cornelius to that line. Defensive and offensive line play will help define Oregon in 2023, for good or ill.

12. Utah

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Where Utah was: 10-4 (7-2 Pac-12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 14

Where Utah is: The losses are notable, including both of the Utes' talented running backs, star tight end Dalton Kincaid, and stud cornerback Clark Phillips. But quarterback Cameron Rising is returning behind a veteran offensive line, a not-insignificant development for the two-time defending league champs as they seek to make it three straight Pac-12 football titles in a more crowded field. How healthy is Rising after tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl? That's the big question for the Utes coming into the opener against Florida.

11. Oklahoma

Where Oklahoma was: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 20

Where Oklahoma is: Bracing from its first losing season since 1998, and its first outing overall under new head coach Brent Venables, regarded as college football's premier defensive mind, but whose unit was 123rd nationally and 90th in points per game allowed. Dillon Gabriel returns at quarterback, but he loses top target Marvin Mims and thousand-yard rusher Eric Gray. OU got some big help defensively by signing transfer linemen Trace Ford and Dasan McCullough to come off the edge, adding speed and physicality to the front seven that needs it.

10. Penn State

Where Penn State was: 11-2 (7-2 Big Ten)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 7

Where Penn State is: Some key talent has gone including Sean Clifford and star corner Joey Porter, but otherwise Penn State returns enough of this defense, especially on the edges at the line, to hold things down, and boasts elite skill at running back, both keys to build on as 5-star quarterback Drew Allar learns the playbook and gets comfortable. PSU lost twice, to Ohio State and Michigan, in 2022; win one of those games in '23 and this program can take a huge step forward in the Big Ten title hunt and College Football Playoff chase.

9. USC

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Where USC was: 11-3 (8-1 Pac-12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 6

Where USC is: Reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams returned to the field in Week 0 with a four touchdown effort in a win over San Jose State and he looks to have another budding superstar on the offense as freshman receiver Jeremiah Branch went off in his debut, racking up 232 all-purpose yards and a pair of touchdowns on the day. Even so, the Trojan defense left some more plays on the field and still looks to be a work in progress.

8. Clemson

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Where Clemson was: 11-3 (8-0 ACC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 9

Where Clemson is: Trying to avoid slipping out of the College Football Playoff elite for good, now with two straight seasons of missing out on the semifinal. Offense has been skittish to say the least, but Dabo Swinney hopes he has found a solution by adding former TCU play-caller Garrett Riley, a major addition to the coaching staff to help develop quarterback Cade Klubnik, backed up by Will Shipley and Phil Mafah behind center, while beefing up more elite skill at receiver, and Clemson has some surgery to do on the front seven after some major departures to the draft.

7. Notre Dame

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Where Notre Dame was: 9-4

AP top 25 ranking: No. 13

Where Notre Dame is: The addition of veteran transfer quarterback Sam Hartman has already produced some major returns after he helped light a fire under the Irish offense in the Week 0 opener against Navy. Hartman went 19 of 23 passing for 82.6 percent completion with 251 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in his debut for the Golden Domers. Not too shabby, though tougher tests lie ahead for the QB working behind one of college football's top lines.

6. Michigan

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Where Michigan was: 13-1 (9-0 Big Ten)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 2

Where Michigan is: Two wins over Ohio State, two Big Ten titles, and two College Football Playoff appearances. It's been a good two years for Michigan. And it can be a third, as well, looking at the return of quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, the addition of some solid talent to what is the back-to-back Joe Moore Award-winning O-line in the portal, and looking at a defense that should remain at par with last season's output. Watch out for edge rushing transfer Josaiah Stewart in particular, who had 12.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina two years ago.

5. Texas

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Where Texas was: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 11

Where Texas is: Steve Sarkisian is all of 13-12 on the Forty Acres so far, but he came awfully close to bringing the Longhorns back last fall, losing all five games by seven points or fewer. You get the feeling a few tweaks here and there and this team could go places, especially with quarterback Quinn Ewers so high on potential and 5-star Arch Manning coming up behind him. Bijan Robinson is gone, but the Longhorns return their offensive line and three top receivers in what should be one of the more compelling air attacks in college football this season.

4. LSU

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Where LSU was: 10-4 (6-2 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 5

Where LSU is: Jayden Daniels returns at quarterback, behind his full complement of blockers, with Malik Nabers back at receiver, and Maason Smith and Harold Perkins filling out a physical, attacking front seven. Add in some key transfers like cornerbacks Denver Harris and Zy Alexander and former Alabama receiver Aaron Anderson, and 2023 should prove that reigning SEC West champion LSU wasn't a fluke in Brian Kelly's debut season. Week 1 is a rematch with Florida State.

3. Georgia

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Where Georgia was: 15-0 (8-0 SEC), College Football Playoff national champion

AP top 25 ranking: No. 1

Where Georgia is: Fans will have issue with Georgia's ranking here as the two-time defending national champion, but the FPI projects UGA to be 27.4 points better than the average opponent, placing third among teams according to that analytic. Quarterback is a question, with newcomer Carson Beck ready to succeed Stetson Bennett, while all-world tight end Brock Bowers is back after 56 catches for 790 yards and six TDs this past season, and Ladd McConkey returns at receiver, too. Dominic Lovett and RaRa Thomas are two huge receiver pickups in the portal, as was the No. 2 recruiting class this year. This might be Kirby Smart's best offense at Georgia.

2. Alabama

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Where Alabama was: 11-2 (6-2 SEC)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 4

Where Alabama is: Big questions for Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide with major holes to fill on defense and at quarterback. That's something this program has done with rare ability in Saban's tenure and is coming off signing another No. 1 recruiting class. Bama has two new coordinators and faces a mandate to improve its play at the line offensively, choose between transfer Tyler Buchner, 5-star Ty Simpson, and dual threat Jalen Milroe at quarterback, get better output at receiver, and clean up the penalties and turnover issues coming into 2023. FPI predicts Alabama to be 28.2 points better than an average opponent this year.

1. Ohio State

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Where Ohio State was: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten)

AP top 25 ranking: No. 3

Where Ohio State is: The one thing we know is that the Buckeyes should have plenty of production at wide receiver, the position they've recruited so well in recent years. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is arguably college football's best wideout, and Emeka Egbuka isn't far behind. Running back TreVeyon Henderson returns, but there's a big question at quarterback between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown and the line they'll play behind. Ohio State plays Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Michigan on the road, too. FPI projects the Buckeyes to be a nation-best 31.5 points better than opponents on average this season, the only team to surpass the 30-point mark.

(FPI)

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