College football rankings: Alabama, Oregon rise in ESPN top 25 poll for Week 10

The biggest movers on the latest ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week

Division and conference races are getting more competitive now and as we move into the month of November, there's little to no margin for error for contenders, and every loss means much more than it did a few weeks ago as the playoff selection committee prepares to release its first official rankings of the season. Where does that leave things for college football's top 25 teams?

• The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team's future performance
• Rankings and predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team's season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team's schedule
• Teams are ranked not strictly in order of talent, but by a projected point margin against an average team on a neutral field

25. UCLA

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Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.5 games

Where UCLA is now: The Bruins took care of business at home against Colorado and sit at 3-2 in Pac-12 play, tied for 4th in the conference, with road games against Arizona and USC upcoming.

24. Missouri

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Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.9 games

Where Missouri is now: Off last week, the Tigers are 7-1 and sit in second place in the SEC East but face the biggest test of their season, a date at national champion Georgia, whose defense will test Mizzou's top-25 ranked passing attack and scoring offense.

23. Miami

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 8.2 games

Where Miami is now: The Hurricanes improved to 2-2 in ACC play after Mark Fletcher's touchdown run helped beat Virginia in overtime. Games at Florida State and against Louisville are still to come.

22. North Carolina

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 8.7 games

Where North Carolina is now: Sitting on the wrong end of a two-game losing streak, first to Virginia and most recently against Georgia Tech, which scored 22 points in the fourth quarter, all but dropping the Heels out of the ACC title race. UNC hosts Duke in two weeks and closes at Clemson and at NC State.

21. Louisville

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Rankings change: Up 6

Win projection: 10.0 games

Where Louisville is now: Jawhar Jordan ran for a career-high 163 yards and two touchdowns in a statement win over Duke and now the Cardinals look like the favorite to finish No. 2 in the ACC.

20. Clemson

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 6.4 games

Where Clemson is now: The preseason playoff hopefuls dropped to 4-4 with a loss to NC State, but the ESPN computers logged Clemson in the top 25 by projecting it to be 12.6 points better than an average opponent.

19. SMU

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Rankings change: Up 5

Win projection: 10.2 games

Where SMU is now: Preston Stone scored 3 times as the Mustangs destroyed Tulsa in a 69-10 rout, moving to 4-0 in conference play and sitting at second behind Tulane in the AAC standings.

18. Oregon State

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Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.5 games

Where Oregon State is now: Just 6 combined points keep the Beavers from being undefeated after a 3-point loss to Arizona and its improved defense. Now at 3-2 in conference, they have a very steep climb to crawl back into Pac-12 title contention.

17. USC

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.6 games

Where USC is now: Grateful that its defense was able to thwart a 2-point conversion attempt, otherwise this would have been a third loss after Cal was able to stack 49 points on this unit. Not a good sign with the Ducks and Huskies still on the schedule.

16. Texas A&M

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Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 7.5 games

Where Texas A&M is now: Up to 3-2 in SEC play after an important win over South Carolina, but the Aggies need to be a little more consistent with dates against Ole Miss and LSU still to come.

15. Tennessee

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Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 8.8 games

Where Tennessee is now: Big Orange passed an important test at Kentucky and moved to 3-2 in SEC play, but bigger tests await with games at Missouri and against Georgia to sort out the East Division pecking order.

14. Washington

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 10.9 games

Where Washington is now: The Huskies moved to 8-0 and still hold firm in the top spot of the Pac-12 standings after a win over Stanford, but it was a close game going into the fourth quarter.

13. Ole Miss

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 9.7 games

Where Ole Miss is now: Sitting in second place in the SEC West after taking care of Vanderbilt and moving to 7-1 but hoping another second-half collapse isn't in order with key dates against Texas A&M and Georgia before finishing in the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss is playing much better defense the last few weeks.

12. Kansas State

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 9.0 games

Where Kansas State is now: Will Howard passed for 2 scores and the Wildcat defense smothered Houston in a 41-0 rout, moving K-State to 4-1 in conference play with a game at Texas upcoming.

11. Notre Dame

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 9.6 games

Where Notre Dame is now: Fresh off a 58-7 shellacking of Pittsburgh after Audric Estime ran for over 100 yards and 3 touchdowns, moving the Irish to 7-2 with a winnable schedule to close out, going to Clemson and Stanford.

10. LSU

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Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 9.0 games

Where LSU is now: Off this past weekend, the defending SEC West champs return with a landmark game at Alabama to help sort out the division hierarchy, boasting one of college football's premier offensive attacks, but also one of its most questionable pass defenses.

9. Texas

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 10.5 games

Where Texas is now: Maalik Murphy passed his first test as the Longhorns' starting quarterback, but there's no margin for error going forward with the one loss as they look ahead to the Big 12 title chase.

8. Oklahoma

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Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 11.0 games

Where Oklahoma is now: Coming off a stunning upset loss at unranked Kansas, which got out to an early 14-0 lead and stormed back late to win the game on Devin Neal's touchdown. OU still boasts college football's 11th ranked passing attack and 4th best scoring offense, but the loss makes things a little more interesting in the Big 12 as the last-ever Bedlam game approaches this week against a surprisingly strong Oklahoma State.

7. Florida State

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Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 12.4 games

Where Florida State is now: Looking more like the clear favorite in the ACC championship race after an impressive win over Wake that moved the Seminoles and their 5th ranked scoring attack to 8-0 on the year. FSU hosts Miami in two weeks and closes at rival Florida.

6. Georgia

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 11.6 games

Where Georgia is now: After letting the Gators score on a long drive to open the Cocktail Party, the Bulldogs settled in and scored 36 unanswered points, winning their 25th straight game. Now they go into the toughest stretch of the season by far, hosting Missouri and Ole Miss before going to Tennessee.

5. Penn State

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 10.2 games

Where Penn State is now: Fresh off a closer-than-expected win over Indiana in which the offense failed to generate real momentum until Drew Allar threw a long touchdown pass to pull away late. A trip to Maryland is next before hosting Michigan, a game which, judging by FPI's win total, is one the computer expects the Nittany Lions to lose.

4. Oregon

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Rankings change: Up 6

Win projection: 11.0 games

Where Oregon is now: Coming off a statement trouncing of Utah on the road, where the Utes had won 18 straight before then. Ranking top 10 in passing, rushing, and scoring, the 7-1 Ducks are well in the thick of the Pac-12 title hunt with a key date against USC in two weeks.

3. Alabama

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 10.7 games

Where Alabama is now: Coming off the open week with a landmark date against LSU at home hoping it can hold firm to the No. 1 spot in the SEC West, but still with questions on the offensive line. Jalen Milroe's mobility has helped avoid any catastrophes so far as the Tide is 5-0 in conference play, but it wouldn't hurt to run the ball more, ranking 78th nationally.

2. Michigan

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 11.3 games

Where Michigan is now: Pounding its way through an overmatched schedule but passing all the tests with flying colors, scoring 40-plus points in each of the last four games and working behind the 7th ranked scoring offense and 1st ranked scoring defense, allowing just 5.9 points per game. A trip to Penn State comes in two weeks.

1. Ohio State

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 11.8 games

Where Ohio State is now: Happy to recover from a sloppy first half at Wisconsin that included three turnovers and grateful it has Marvin Harrison, Jr. to cut through the secondary and TreVeyon Henderson to carry the load on the ground. OSU's win projection here suggests the index is favoring the Buckeyes, who have two key top-10 wins this season, over the Wolverines right now in the head-to-head matchup.

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