College football rankings: Alabama, Michigan jump in ESPN top 25 poll for Week 9

Where things stand in the ESPN college football rankings going into Week 9

Two teams in the top 10 were upset over the weekend, including Penn State against division rival Ohio State and a shocker that saw North Carolina fall at home to lowly Virginia, resulting in some notable changes at the top of this week's top 25 college football rankings, and that includes the latest updated ESPN poll.

• The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team's future performance
• Rankings and predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team's season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team's schedule
• Teams are ranked not strictly in order of talent, but by a projected point margin against an average team on a neutral field

25. Missouri

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 8.9 games

Where Missouri is now: Still at second place in the SEC East standings after an impressive win over South Carolina, but after the open week with dates against Georgia and Tennessee in succession.

24. SMU

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Rankings change: Up 6

Win projection: 10.0 games

Where SMU is now: The Mustangs moved to a perfect 3-0 conference record and into the No. 2 place in the AAC after Preston Stone had 300 yards passing in a 55-0 thrashing over Temple.

23. Duke

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Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 8.4 games

Where Duke is now: Hoping that Riley Leonard can fix that ankle after the injury was re-aggravated this weekend in a game Duke was winning early at Florida State. A trip to Louisville is next and UNC two weeks after that.

22. Utah

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Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 9.0 games

Where Utah is now: Riding high after taking down USC on the road on a field goal as time expired, going 3-0 against the Trojans in the last 3 meetings and once again appearing to destroy the Trojans' playoff hopes.

21. Miami

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.3 games

Where Miami is now: Fresh off a double overtime victory over Clemson at home despite not having quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, notching its first ACC win.

20. North Carolina

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Rankings change: Down 6

Win projection: 9.6 games

Where North Carolina is now: Wondering what happened after losing at home to lowly Virginia in a game the Heels were favored by 23.5 points, now tied for 2nd in the ACC with Louisville and with a lot less margin for error in the conference championship race.

19. Oregon State

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Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 9.2 games

Where Oregon State is now: Off this past weekend, the Beavers still sit in third-place in the Pac-12 standings and facing three winnable games before closing out against Washington and at Oregon.

18. Clemson

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 7.4 games

Where Clemson is now: Coming off its third loss in ACC play for the first time since the 2010 season after dropping a double-overtime decision at Miami and seemingly further away from making a return to the playoff than ever.

17. USC

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 8.3 games

Where USC is now: Apparently out of the College Football Playoff again with a second loss after its defense, the millstone around this team's neck ever since Lincoln Riley's arrival, once again failed to play up to the quality of its opponent, despite that opponent (Utah) having one of the nation's least-productive offenses.

16. Tennessee

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.6 games

Where Tennessee is now: Wondering what happened to that impressive halftime lead it had at Alabama, slipping to 4th in the SEC East after a second-half collapse that resulted in a second loss, with dates coming up at Missouri and at Kentucky and against Georgia in the future.

15. Texas A&M

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 7.3 games

Where Texas A&M is now: Off this past weekend, the Aggies are at 4-3 overall and in fourth place in the SEC West, but still in the mid-range of the ESPN rankings thanks to its being a projected 15.7 points better than an average opponent.

14. Kansas State

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Rankings change: Up 5

Win projection: 8.8 games

Where Kansas State is now: Just 11 combined points from being undefeated and coming off a 41-3 thrashing of TCU in which Will Howard threw three touchdown passes. Games at Texas and at Kansas in the final few weeks are important litmus tests.

13. Ole Miss

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Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 9.7 games

Where Ole Miss is now: Still parked in third place in the SEC West after an important road win at Auburn that showed the Rebels can come through some adversity behind the talent of their skill players.

12. Washington

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 11.0 games

Where Washington is now: Something of a question mark a week after a statement win over Oregon but now coming off a puzzling win over Arizona State in which Michael Penix didn't throw a touchdown pass and the Huskies offense slogged through turnovers. Only an 89-yard pick-six gave UDub a late lead.

11. Notre Dame

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 9.3 games

Where Notre Dame is now: Running the table the rest of the way seems like a real possibility, but with two losses almost certainly out of the College Football Playoff. The Irish sit at 14th nationally in scoring both offensively and defensively.

10. Oregon

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Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 10.4 games

Where Oregon is now: At one loss and 3rd in the Pac-12 standings, the Ducks are coming off a win over Wazzu but go to Utah next to square off against one of college football's premier defenses.

9. LSU

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 9.1 games

Where LSU is now: The offense lit up Army as expected on Saturday in a 62-0 rout and now the Tigers rest up on the open week before a landmark trip to Alabama that will help decide the SEC West title race.

8. Georgia

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 11.3 games

Where Georgia is now: Coming off the open week, the Bulldogs renew their rivalry with Florida and then go into three straight games against ranked opponents: vs. Missouri, vs. Ole Miss, and at Tennessee. We'll see how the absence of star Brock Bowers affects the defending champs' offensive output.

7. Texas

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 10.5 games

Where Texas is now: Hoping that quarterback Quinn Ewers doesn't miss any time after the star quarterback left Saturday's game with an apparent shoulder injury. The Longhorns played a close one against Houston, escaping with a 7-point victory, but there's no margin for error in the Big 12 and CFP race.

6. Florida State

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Rankings change: Up 3

Win projection: 12.2 games

Where Florida State is now: Still in pole position in the ACC standings after a come-from-behind win over a ranked Duke team at home that showed the Seminoles can still pile on points in a hurry when they need to.

5. Alabama

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 10.8 games

Where Alabama is now: Still undefeated in SEC play and holding firm at No. 1 in the division after a second-half rally that helped take down Tennessee at home. An open date is up next before the showdown at home against LSU that will help sort out the West title hunt.

4. Oklahoma

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Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 12.1 games

Where Oklahoma is now: Still undefeated but coming off a close-call at home against UCF in which the Sooners trailed for a time, but held on after thwarting a two-point conversion attempt in a 2-point win. Two road games are up next, at Kansas and Bedlam.

3. Penn State

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.2 games

Where Penn State is now: Wondering where its offense went after a flop at Ohio State, a game that was supposed to be a barometer on where the program is in the Big Ten East pecking order. PSU went 1 for 16 on third down and only came up with a touchdown in garbage time. Michigan awaits in 2 weeks.

2. Michigan

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Rankings change: Up 2

Win projection: 11.2 games

Where Michigan is now: Still looking like the class of the Big Ten, if not college football nationally, after walloping the Spartans, scoring at least 40 points for the fourth straight game, playing behind the nation's 7th ranked scoring attack and ranking No. 1 nationally allowing 5.9 points per game.

1. Ohio State

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Rankings change: None

Win projection: 11.8 games

Where Ohio State is now: FPI ranks the Buckeyes just ahead of Michigan based on the projected point margin per game analytics, edging out their rivals by 1.2 points, and boasting wins against two top-10 ranked teams this season after taking out Penn State in a statement game this weekend.

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