College football rankings: Phil Steele predicts Top 10 for 2022 preseason

Phil Steele has a 96 percent success rate predicting the preseason Top 10 college football rankings.

We're still about two months from seeing college football kick off around the country, but midway through summer, that makes it officially prediction season.

Georgia is the defending national champion, but the Bulldogs have a lot to replace on its historically-great defense, and will have plenty of competition in and out of the SEC.

What about that competition? Phil Steele — renowned for his preseason football magazine — set about putting the sport's best teams in perspective.

Predicting the preseason football rankings is something Steele is pretty good at. He's a perfect 10 for 10 in each of the last four seasons, and he's made good on 96 percent of his predictions overall in the last 13 years.

The 2021 season was one that made a mockery of predictions. Upsets were the name of the game, and the final Top 25 poll didn't look much like the preseason version.

College football rankings: Phil Steele predicts the preseason Top 10

10. Oregon

Where Oregon was: 10-4 (7-2 Pac-12), lost Alamo Bowl to Oklahoma

Where Oregon is: Sure, USC is getting all the headlines out of the Pac-12 right now, with Lincoln Riley and those blue-chip transfers coming over, but you shouldn't look past the Ducks under first-year head coach Dan Lanning.

The architect of Georgia's soul-crushing defense a year ago, he'll have some pieces to put Oregon's D in position to keep this team in the conference race. And he'll have Auburn transfer quarterback Bo Nix in place in concert with a stock of very promising receivers to work with, too.

9. Texas A&M

Where Texas A&M was: 8-4 (4-4 SEC), 25th in College Football Playoff rankings, no bowl game (Covid)

Where Texas A&M is: Jimbo Fisher has been steadily building momentum during his time at A&M, last season beating No. 1 Alabama, and this offseason signing what analysts call the highest-rated class in college football recruiting history.

This should be Fisher's best roster at A&M when accounting for returning talent and the additions he made in the 2022 cycle. He'll have some losses on the defensive side of the ball, but also transfer quarterback Max Johnson, who led LSU's upset against this Aggie team a year ago to work with a solid backfield and receiver rotation.

8. Oklahoma

Where Oklahoma was: 11-2 (7-2 Big 12), beat Oregon in Alamo Bowl

Where Oklahoma is: Few, if any, college football programs underwent as much structural change as Oklahoma did this offseason. Its head coach, some play-making wideouts, both coordinators, and both starting quarterbacks split town.

That's been enough to keep OU out of most preseason Top 10 rankings, but Steele is projecting the Sooners to once again lead the Big 12 this spring.

Transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel steps in, as does offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, who called plays for Ole Miss last fall. The two reunite this year after working together in a top 10 offense at UCF a few years ago. And there shouldn't be any concern about how strong a Venables defense plays long term. 

7. Notre Dame

Where Notre Dame was: 11-2, lost to Oklahoma State in Fiesta Bowl

Where Notre Dame is: After Brian Kelly bolted for LSU, the Irish had to do an about face on the fly, and landed on Marcus Freeman to take the reins after he served one season as defensive coordinator.

He brings youth and energy to the program, inherits an intact coaching staff that should help with the transition, and has already made a huge impact on the recruiting trail.

Notre Dame plays a difficult schedule, opening on the road at Ohio State (where Freeman played as a collegian), in addition to games against BYU and Clemson as well as a better USC, but also brings back a lot of depth and talent, especially on offensive line, and likes what it has at quarterback.

6. Utah

Where Utah was: 10-4 (8-1 Pac-12), conference champion, lost to Ohio State in Rose Bowl

Where Utah is: Utah had the luxury of flying under the radar last season, and surprised the world by beating then-CFP favorite Oregon twice and earning the program's first-ever Rose Bowl berth, all after a miserable 1-2 start marked by tragedy.

But coming into 2022, the Utes are suddenly the sexy pick to make some noise in the Pac-12 again and hover around the top 10 rankings all season. And it has a shot, too, with QB Cam Rising and RB Tavion Thomas coming back. Rising was a 64% passer with 20 TDs and five picks; Thomas ran for 1,108 yards and 21 scores.

5. Michigan

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Where Michigan was: 12-2 (8-1 Big Ten), conference champion, College Football Playoff semifinalist, losing to Georgia

Where Michigan is: It took a few years, but Jim Harbaugh finally got his alma mater back into national title contention. Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time in eight years, won the Big Ten by thrashing Iowa, and made the playoff as the No. 2 seed in a whirlwind 2021 season.

But an ugly loss to Georgia followed, as does an exodus of talent on the defensive line, at running back, and on Harbaugh's staff as OC Josh Gattis took a flier on the Miami job under Mario Cristobal.

All that said, Michigan brings back plenty of potential at the skill positions. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy could take the job away from Cade McNamara at some point, while back Blake Corum and receiver Andrel Anthony round out what could be a dynamite trio on offense.

4. Clemson

Where Clemson was: 10-3 (6-2 ACC), beat Iowa State in Cheez-It Bowl

Where Clemson is: That run of six straight ACC titles and College Football Playoffs ended abruptly in 2021, but this still wound up a 10-win team that finished in the Top 25 rankings. Not bad for a "down" year.

Now Clemson is looking to reboot, but it'll do so without both coordinators and with big questions at the quarterback position. And with an intriguing schedule with games against Wake, NC State, Notre Dame, and Miami on tap.

Tigers quarterback DJ Uiagalelei brings a 5-star pedigree to the position, but is coming off a 9 TD, 10 INT outing last fall. His 2020 effort — starting in relief of Trevor Lawrence, who had Covid-19 — shows there's a ton of potential here.

3. Georgia

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Where Georgia was: 14-1 (8-0 SEC), SEC East champion, College Football Playoff national champion

Where Georgia is: College football's defending national champion should be well in the thick of the playoff race again this fall, but not without addressing replacements on that dynamite defense. A lot of that historically-great unit is gone, but with plenty of equally talented pieces that can easily step into place thanks to Kirby Smart's recruiting success.

Stetson Bennett will return to the quarterback position, but this time around the Bulldogs won't have 5-star JT Daniels in reserve after he transferred out. Bennett also gets the best one-two punch at tight end in the nation: Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington, in addition to a very promising piece in Arik Gilbert.

2. Ohio State

Where Ohio State was: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten), beat Utah in Rose Bowl

Where Ohio State is: Two of the top receivers in college football are gone, but what OSU lacks in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, it gains by keeping Heisman finalist quarterback CJ Stroud, back TreVeyon Henderson, and wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba in addition to a ton of other elite receiver options.

That should be enough for Ohio State to maintain its speed advantage against its slate of Big Ten opponents, but that's not all the Buckeyes need to make the playoff.

It also has to contend with a renewed rival in Michigan, and the structural question of how to repair a defensive unit that cost this team dearly in losses to UM and Oregon a year ago. Enter Jim Knowles, the architect of Oklahoma State's No. 3 ranked defense, who Ryan Day brought to Columbus to recreate that magic for this team.

1. Alabama

Where Alabama was: 13-2 (7-1 SEC), SEC champion, College Football Playoff runner-up

Where Alabama is: Another preseason, another No. 1 ranked Crimson Tide team. That's the general consensus coming out of spring football, and looking at this roster, it's easy to see why.

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young returns at quarterback, as does linebacker Will Anderson, who led college football in sacks and TFLs last fall. And the Tide cleaned up in the transfer portal this offseason.

Watch out for cornerback Eli Ricks (formerly at LSU), wide receiver Jermaine Burton — who led Georgia's title team last fall — and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who comes over from Georgia Tech the nation's active leader in all-purpose yards.

Talent, depth, and Nick Saban. It's the unholy trinity that has enabled Alabama to dominate the sport for more than a decade. That hasn't changed.

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