Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings for Week 12

Making our predictions for the third official College Football Playoff rankings with just two games left in the regular season before Championship Saturday

Half way through the month of November, and with just two games remaining in the 2023 college football season, suddenly every decision the CFP selection committee makes means a lot more, as Championship Saturday and Selection Sunday draw near. Now, the selectors are preparing their third official rankings of the season this week.

• Georgia stayed perfect with a dominant win over top-10 Ole Miss at home to clinch the SEC East crown
• Alabama thrashed Kentucky on the road and booked the other side of that game in Atlanta after winning the SEC West title
• Michigan earned a statement win over a ranked Penn State despite not having Jim Harbaugh on the sideline amid a suspension
• Ranked teams will be heading down after losses, including the Rebels, Tennessee, and Penn State
• Oregon, Washington appear to be on a collision course in the Pac-12 title chase after wins against USC and Utah, respectively, this week

10. Missouri

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Last week's ranking: No. 14

Record: 8-2

Where Missouri is now: Looking like the selection committee's best two-loss team after an impressive and dominant victory over a ranked Tennessee team thanks to Cody Schrader's historic performance. Missouri hosts Florida next and finishes at Arkansas. In theory, Oregon State would remain ahead of Missouri after routing Stanford, but the committee may take a win over a ranked SEC team to be of more value and jump the Tigers over the Beavers.

9. Louisville

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Last week's ranking: No. 11

Record: 9-1

Where Louisville is now: The Cardinals held off Virginia's 21-point third quarter to hold on at one loss on the year and sitting at No. 2 in the ACC standings, but yet to clinch the other spot in the conference championship against Florida State. Losses by Penn State and Ole Miss should be enough to propel Louisville into the top 10 of the rankings.

8. Alabama

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Last week's ranking: No. 8

Record: 9-1

Where Alabama is now: Having clinched the SEC West and a berth in the Championship Game against Georgia, the Crimson Tide are officially in the playoff hunt once again. Alabama has three wins against teams in the CFP rankings and is playing some potent offense and strong defense, ranking 3rd in the SEC in total production and 17th nationally in scoring.

7. Texas

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Last week's ranking: No. 7

Record: 9-1

Where Texas is now: Despite some close calls against Big 12 opposition the last few weeks, including a three-point decision against TCU, the Longhorns still boast a quality win against Alabama, one that looks better every week as the Tide has improved since then. The loss to Oklahoma looks worse than it did since the Sooners' struggles the last few weeks, but the road win over the Tide should supersede it.

6. Oregon

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Last week's ranking: No. 6

Record: 9-1

Where Oregon is now: Taking down USC is a mixed result, as the Trojans are a potent offensive threat but also one of college football's worst defenses. Oregon is the committee's best one-loss team, but should stay out of the top five with other undefeated competition, including Washington, which won head to head.

5. Florida State

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Last week's ranking: No. 4

Record: 10-0

Where Florida State is now: With the committee watching how teams play in wins, and given the Seminoles playing close games against Pitt and Miami in consecutive outings, that could be enough to fall one spot in the rankings. Especially given how well Washington has looked against opponents the selectors regard as superior in quality.

4. Washington

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Last week's ranking: No. 5

Record: 10-0

Where Washington is now: Florida State's two key wins are against Clemson and LSU, while the Huskies' two best victories came against Oregon and Utah, two ranked teams that the committee clearly prefer over FSU's opposition. The performance against the Utes and their physical defense should convince the selectors to finally nudge Washington up a spot.

3. Michigan

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Last week's ranking: No. 3

Record: 10-0

Where Michigan is now: There's some possibility the committee could move the Wolverines up a spot given they beat a top 25 ranked team on the road, and without their head coach on the sideline, no less. But it may not be enough for the selectors to swap OSU for Michigan just yet.

2. Ohio State

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Last week's ranking: No. 1

Record: 10-0

Where Ohio State is now: Some factors are playing into possibly falling a spot in the rankings, mostly quality of schedule and Georgia's performance. Some of the Buckeyes' opponents don't look as good as they did before, but the play of this defense impressed the committee, and the win over Notre Dame should still be enough to stay ahead of Michigan, for now.

1. Georgia

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Last week's ranking: No. 2

Record: 10-0

Where Georgia is now: After winning in dominating fashion against former No. 9 ranked Ole Miss, a week after earning a close win over a ranked Missouri, especially after that team's impressive showing against a ranked Tennessee, and suddenly Georgia's quality of wins look a lot better than Ohio State's victories over Notre Dame and a now-lagging Penn State.

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