College football rankings: Predicting the CFP poll for Championship Week

Locking in our predictions for the next College Football Playoff rankings after Ohio State's loss to Michigan and heading into Championship Week

What a difference a week makes, especially when it's Rivalry Week. As the 2023 college football regular season finale comes and goes, the contenders took the opportunity to separate themselves from the pretenders, especially when it came to the sport's most bitter rivalry. Michigan, two-time defending Big Ten champions and playoff hopefuls, knocked off Ohio State for a third-straight year in a battle of undefeated, top-five teams, a result that will shake up the rankings this week.

10. Penn State

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Last ranking: No. 11

The two losses to Ohio State and Michigan once again keep the Lions at a solid third-place in the Big Ten pecking order, but after thrashing Michigan State in the Land Grant Trophy game, Penn State is a virtual lock for a New Year's bowl game and should move back into the top 10 with Louisville's surprise loss.

9. Missouri

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Last ranking: No. 9

The committee regards Missouri as the best two-loss team in the country, a position they won't budge from after it routed Arkansas in the regular season finale behind Cody Schrader's 200-plus yard game. Missouri moved ahead of Louisville in the rankings last week, an important step towards edging out SEC challenger Ole Miss for a better New Year's bowl game.

8. Ohio State

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Last ranking: No. 2

Expect a drop for the Buckeyes after losing to Michigan, but the selection committee won't punish them too harshly for losing a highly-competitive, 6-point game on the road to one of the best teams in the country, one they were in position to win down to the last minute. But the selectors are likely to drop Ohio State behind teams that still control their own destiny on Championship Weekend.

7. Alabama

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Last ranking: No. 8

Jalen Milroe hit Isaiah Bond in the corner of the end zone on a fourth and goal from 31 yards out to take down Auburn in a classic ending, and if the Crimson Tide can beat Georgia in the SEC title game, all bets are off in the chaos that would ensue before Selection Sunday.

6. Texas

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Last ranking: No. 7

Pounding a conference rival by 50 points and earning a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game should be enough to stay ranked ahead of Ohio State. Texas should move up not only for that win, and the Buckeyes' loss, but especially given the big win over a common opponent shared with Oregon, which beat Texas Tech earlier this season. But a shot at the playoff hinges on other teams higher up in the rankings losing this week.

5. Oregon

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Last ranking: No. 6

Oregon's impressive 24-point victory over a highly-regarded and ranked Oregon State team, combined with the Buckeyes' loss, is enough to move up a spot. And if the Ducks can knock off Washington in the Pac-12 title game, they should be the favorite to take the No. 4 position in the national semifinal.

4. Florida State

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Last ranking: No. 5

The Seminoles got knocked down a spot last week in favor of Washington, but with the other changes in the top four, that leaves enough room to get back in for this week. And if they can beat Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, they're a sure thing to make the semifinal.

3. Washington

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Last ranking: No. 4

The undefeated Huskies should move up one spot in the rankings this week after edging rival Washington State on a daring fourth down call and a last-second field goal to win the Apple Cup. Just beat Oregon for the Pac-12 championship, and Washington is in the playoff. But these games have been a lot closer lately — they're winning by an average of 6 points since the Arizona matchup — and the Ducks are on a tear right now.

2. Michigan

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Last ranking: No. 3

Michigan achieved arguably the single-most important win of any team in college football this season by knocking off an undefeated Ohio State and earning a date in the Big Ten Championship Game. A playoff spot looks inevitable as Michigan is a big favorite against Iowa in that matchup. At worst, the Wolverines should finish at No. 2, but if Alabama can knock off Georgia in the SEC title, that could change.

1. Georgia

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Last ranking: No. 1

You could argue that the committee will at least consider moving Michigan ahead of Georgia at No. 1 given the former's win over a highly-ranked Ohio State. But the selectors will still take the full weight of the Bulldogs' wins into account, and consider victories against ranked SEC teams to be worth more than the Wolverines' most recent result. A win over Alabama for the SEC title would only further that belief and ensure the defending champs stay in pole position going into the semifinal.

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