College football rankings: Michigan, Ohio State lead ESPN top 25 for Week 12

There was some change at the top of the ESPN college football rankings with two Big Ten rivals neck-and-neck at the top of the latest poll

Saturday's games saw plenty of changes in most of the rankings heading into Week 12 after a half-dozen teams in the poll went down in key, late-season matchups, including mostly notably Michigan's win over Penn State and Georgia's statement beatdown against Ole Miss, as two playoff hopefuls stayed undefeated. Now moving into this week's action, let's take a look at the updated ESPN college football rankings.

• Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
• Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
• Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

ESPN top 25 college football rankings

1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Alabama
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Florida State
9. Texas
10. Kansas State
11. LSU
12. Notre Dame
13. Washington
14. Texas A&M
15. Ole Miss
16. Tennessee
17. USC
18. Oregon State
19. Missouri
20. Clemson
21. Utah
22. Louisville
23. SMU
24. North Carolina
25. Auburn

FPI disagrees with the committee. While the College Football Playoff selectors named Ohio State the best team in the country, the index picked Michigan after its big win over Penn State thanks to it being a projected 27.8 points better than an average opponent, 0.6 points better than Ohio State, so it's a close call.

National title favorite? That's also Michigan, which boasts a 38.7 percent chance to go all the way. OSU is second at 36.3 percent, and Florida State is 3rd at 28.8 percent.

Highest win projection? Florida State leads the way, expected to win 12.6 games this season, according to the computers. Georgia is next with 12.1 wins and Michigan is projected to win 12 games.

Texas A&M? Really? Remember, these rankings measure a team's expected point margin per game on a net points scale, so the Aggies' trouncing of Mississippi State will prejudice that result somewhat. A&M is now 17.2 points better than an average opponent, but projected to win just 7.4 games.

Welcome, Auburn. Good signs for the Tigers under the direction of Hugh Freeze, who pulverized Arkansas to become bowl eligible. That big win is skewing the point margin figures somewhat, but Auburn is on a three-game win streak and is 10th nationally in rushing production.

Playoff prediction? The index predicts that two Big Ten teams will qualify for the semifinal in addition to the expected ACC favorite and the defending national champions.

1. Michigan
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia

In this scenario, Michigan overtakes Ohio State as the presumptive Big Ten champion this week and would draw Georgia in the first semifinal game. Expected ACC champ Florida State will face Ohio State in the other matchup.

And the national title game? That would be an explosive rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, with the index projecting the Wolverines would win. Talk about bragging rights in that rivalry.

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