Predicting SEC win totals for the 2022 college football season
It's never too early to get a leg-up on where things are trending in the toughest conference in college football. This year's SEC race could look a little different when accounting for transfers, recruiting, and coaching changes.
But the more things change, the more they stay the same. Which is to say: Alabama is once again the runaway favorite to take the West division, if not the SEC as a whole. And if not the national championship, too.
Georgia comes in as defending national champion and the favorite in the East, but with potential challengers in Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
LSU is starting anew under head coach Brian Kelly, while Texas A&M looks to cash in on its recruiting gains, Ole Miss hopes to withstand its losses on offense, and Bryan Harsin enters Year 2 at Auburn already on the hot seat.
Scroll through to see the latest prediction for SEC football win totals in 2022, according to the wiseguys at Wynn Bet.
College football win totals for SEC teams in 2022
LSU Tigers
2022 win total: 6.0 (Over -125/Under +105)
LSU's 2021 record: 6-7 (3-5 SEC)
What to expect: Anything seems possible for LSU in Year 1 under Brian Kelly, who brings a winning pedigree from Notre Dame, but who also notably struggled in bowls and College Football Playoff games against Southern teams. Now he enters a weekly mosh pit against SEC West competition with structural questions in the secondary and on the offensive line. There's plenty of talent here, but what can Kelly do with it the first time out in order to build positive momentum in the long term?
Mississippi State Bulldogs
2022 win total: 6.5 (-110 both sides)
Mississippi State's 2021 record: 7-6 (4-4 SEC)
What to expect: The Bulldogs came away with three statement wins against ranked SEC opponents last year (Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Auburn). Mike Leach has pieces coming back on offense that should be able to replicate their 2021 production and this defense — 4th in the SEC last season — brings back eight starters. MSU draws the Aggies, Auburn, Georgia, and Arkansas at home this fall.
Ole Miss Rebels
2022 win total: 8.0 (-110 both sides)
Ole Miss' 2021 record: 10-3 (6-2 SEC)
What to expect: The Rebs lost a ton of that offense that ranked No. 1 in the SEC a year ago (and No. 6 in college football), but scored two noteworthy transfer players. One, in quarterback Jaxson Dart, and the other in running back Zach Evans. Expect a slight step back, but there's still enough speed here to keep Ole Miss undefeated or at one loss heading into mid-October.
Arkansas Razorbacks
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2022 win total: 6.5 (Over +120/Under -140)
Arkansas' 2021 record: 9-4 (4-4 SEC)
What to expect: One of the biggest surprises in college football last season, the Hogs started off 4-0 and went into the Georgia game ranked No. 8 in the country. Then came a three-game losing skid before finishing off 5-1 with a bowl win over Penn State and a No. 24 ranking. KJ Jefferson — one of the SEC's top quarterbacks a year ago — will return, but he won't have star Treylon Burks, a thousand-yard receiver in 2021, to lean on.
Texas A&M Aggies
2022 win total: 9.0 (Over -125/Under +105)
Texas A&M's 2021 record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)
What to expect: A&M just signed a ridiculously elite recruiting class and should be set on the defensive front for a few years. There are some good receivers to work with and a room full of talented quarterbacks. A&M lost twice to ranked conference teams last season, both by 10 points each, and to a pair of unranked teams by a combined 10 points. It needs to win these games to garner real College Football Playoff consideration.
Florida Gators
2022 win total: 7 (-110 both sides)
Florida's 2021 record: 6-7 (2-6 SEC)
What to expect: First-year coach Billy Napier lands in the Swamp with a mandate to improve recruiting, beef up this defensive back seven, and pick a quarterback who can go the distance to put UF back in the driver's seat in the SEC East. Defensively, the Gators surrendered almost 27 points per game, allowing more than 40 three times, including 52 by the likes of Samford at home.
Alabama Crimson Tide
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2022 win total: 11.5 (Over +200/Under -250)
Alabama's 2021 record: 13-2 (7-1 SEC)
What to expect: More of the same from the Tide, who have made a living losing and replacing blue-chip talent under Nick Saban. Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young is back, as is college football's leader in sacks and TFLs, linebacker Will Anderson, among eight returning starters on defense.
Watch for a Week 2 road trip to Texas, but a win there could ensure another undefeated regular season mark for Bama and at least a virtual lock on a top-four spot in the College Football Playoff poll.
Auburn Tigers
2022 win total: 5.0 (Over -120/Under +100)
Auburn's 2021 record: 6-7 (3-5 SEC)
What to expect: Winning six games, even in your first year, isn't going to cut it in the SEC, and especially not after the offseason head coach Bryan Harsin was subjected to. He nearly lost his job amid intense speculation and an internal investigation into his coaching methods.
At the end of the day, he kept the job, but under pressure to get the most from a roster that needs work on defense and at quarterback. And will play against one of the toughest schedules in college football this season.
South Carolina Gamecocks
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2022 win total: 6 (Over -150/Under +130)
South Carolina's 2021 record: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)
What to expect: Shane Beamer outdid expectations in Year 1, finishing over .500 and clinching statement upset victories over Florida and Auburn. The Gamecocks became bowl-eligible for the first time since 2018 and beat North Carolina in the Mayo Bowl.
Now the Gamecocks welcome a pair of difference-makers in the transfer portal: former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler and tight end Austin Stogner. But can Carolina's front line protect its new quarterback better than it did last season?
Georgia Bulldogs
2022 win total: 11.5 (Over +200/Under -250)
Georgia's 2021 record: 14-1 (8-0 SEC)
What to expect: For the first time in more than 40 years, Georgia is college football's defending national champion, and should be in the mix for the final four again in 2022.
But to get there, the Bulldogs need to patch up a few holes on that historically dominant defense and ensure they get the same production from quarterback Stetson Bennett, who has Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington returning at tight end. And hopefully Arik Gilbert, who should be back after missing the CFP run in 2021 for personal reasons.
Vanderbilt Commodores
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2022 win total: 1.5 (Over -170/Under +150)
Vanderbilt's 2021 record: 2-10 (0-8 SEC)
What to expect: Vandy needs all the help it can get with trips to Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky, and with Ole Miss and Florida coming to Nashville. This offense accounted for just under 16 points per game a year ago and this defense allowed almost 40 points each time out against SEC opposition.
Tennessee Volunteers
2022 win total: 8.6 (Over -105/Under -115)
Tennessee's 2021 record: 7-6 (4-4 SEC)
What to expect: There's a lot to like about what Josh Heupel did on Rocky Top in Year 1, especially on offense, which ranked No. 9 overall in college football. Hendon Hooker returns at quarterback after finishing the SEC's most efficient passer last fall, but the Vols need to ensure quality replacements for talent lost at the receiver position. UT needs answers for a defense that allowed almost 34 points to SEC opposition a year ago and has holes in the secondary.
Missouri Tigers
2022 win total: 5 (-110 both sides)
Missouri's 2021 record: 6-7 (3-5 SEC)
What to expect: Eli Drinkwitz has to break in a new quarterback after Connor Bazelak transferred to Indiana this offseason. And a new running back following the departure of Tyler Badie, the SEC's all-purpose yardage leader in 2021. Missouri will welcome 5-star wide receiver Luther Burden into the fold, but there are still some structural issues on this roster to solve before it can throw some elbows in the SEC East.
Kentucky Wildcats
2022 win total: 8 (-110 both sides)
Kentucky's 2021 record: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)
What to expect: UK was a 10-win team a year ago with statement wins over LSU and Florida, but absorbed three losses to ranked SEC teams. This time around, Kentucky won't have Wan'Dale Robinson at receiver, three O-line starters, or six pieces on defense, but it does get quarterback Will Levis, a 2,800-yard passer with 24 TDs last fall, and leading rusher Chris Rodriguez, who rushed for 1,379 yards and nine scores. A late season home tilt with Georgia could decide the East Division.
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