Alabama vs. Arkansas odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Expert picks, predictions for Alabama vs. Arkansas on the Week 5 college football schedule

Two old SEC West rivals meet up in a battle of top 25 ranked teams as Alabama takes on Arkansas in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Arkansas was just one very unlucky field goal from making this game a battle of undefeateds, but the Hogs are instead 3-1 after a loss to Texas A&M.

The Tide is perfect through 4 games, including three routs over non-conference foes and a 1-point win at Texas in Week 2.

What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Alabama vs. Arkansas odds, spread, predictions

Week 5 college football picks; Alabama vs. Arkansas

Despite the Razorbacks' success this season, the index is still siding strongly with the Crimson Tide, which has the 93.1 percent chance of victory.

That leaves Arkansas the 6.9 percent shot to upset Alabama at home.

The oddsmakers also favor the Tide, which comes in as the 16.5 point favorites to win, according to the line at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 61.5 points for the matchup.

Alabama moved back to the No. 1 position on the computer's 131 college football rankings, an improvement of 1 spot from last week's No. 2 position.

FPI projects the Tide will win 11.7 games on the season with a 84.9 percent shot to make the College Football Playoff, and the 38.4 percent chance to win the national championship, all the best marks this week.

The computer estimates that Alabama will be 30.8 points better on average than the teams on its schedule each week.

AP top 25 voters kept Alabama in the No. 2 position this week, though 4 voters did rank it as the top team, not enough to unseat Georgia. Arkansas dropped 10 spots, the 2nd most this week, to No. 20.

Arkansas checks in at No. 42 on the FPI rankings, a shocking position for the Razorbacks, but it reflects that the prediction model clearly doesn't like what could lie ahead for the team and its tough schedule: it projects Arkansas will win just 6.1 games this season.

The index projects the Hogs will be 6.5 points better on average than its opponents each week.

Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

How to watch college football this season

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. USC
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. NC State
11. Penn State
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. Ole Miss
15. Washington
16. Baylor
17. Texas A&M
18. Oklahoma
19. BYU
20. Arkansas
21. Minnesota
22. Wake Forest
23. Florida State
24. Pittsburgh
25. Kansas State

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