Alabama vs. Ole Miss preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

Predictions and preview for Alabama vs. Ole Miss on the Week 11 college football schedule

James Parks | Nov 12, 2022

Alabama vs. Ole Miss preview, prediction: Who wins, and why? /

A pair of second- and third-place teams in the SEC West square off in Oxford this weekend as Alabama visits Ole Miss in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

It's an unusual spot for the Crimson Tide to be in, losing multiple games before the Iron Bowl for the first time since 2010, at 7-2 overall and, while likely out of the College Football Playoff picture, still in position to make a quality bowl game.

Ole Miss is hoping to hold onto the No. 2 spot in the division, already with a loss to leader LSU on the books, but itching at the chance to hand Nick Saban and Alabama a third loss of the season in what would be a statement for the Rebels program and Lane Kiffin.

Here's what to expect from Saturday's matchup.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss preview, predictions

Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart scrambles on a play during a college football game. — Week 11 college football picks: Alabama vs. Ole Miss / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Nov. 12

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central

TV: CBS network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Point spread: Alabama comes into the game as 11.5 point favorites to defeat Ole Miss, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Over/under: 63.5 points

Moneyline: Alabama -500, Ole Miss +310

FPI prediction: Alabama has the 75.3 percent to win the game outright, compared with the Rebels' 24.7 percent shot, according to Football Power Index computers, which simulate teams' seasons 20,000 times to predict outcomes using previous scores and schedules.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss: Keys to the game

Alabama Crimson Tide college football team schedule, rankings

1. Bama backs vs. Rebels run stop. Ole Miss gets a lot of the attention for its ability to run the ball, and rightly so as it ranks atop the SEC in rushing production, but watch how the Crimson Tide seeks to establish the run early in this game. The team has struggled with pass protection and can't rely on Bryce Young to make every play on his own. Bill O'Brien needs to account for the Rebels' 78th ranked rush defense and tilt the gameplan towards chewing up yards on the ground and running clock to limit Ole Miss' pace on offense and take some of the pressure off a receiving group that hasn't played to up standard.

2. Ole Miss on the ground. Lane Kiffin has decisively shifted his team's approach towards running the ball this season, and with success: Ole Miss is 3rd nationally with 267.4 rushing yards per game while freshman back Quinshon Judkins leads the SEC in scoring, aside from placekickers, is second in the league in total rushing production, and leads the conference with 13 rushing touchdowns. If the Rebels are able to crack open some running lanes or incorporate their backs in the short passing game behind the Tide's linebackers, Alabama's front seven could wear down as the game progresses.

3. Mental mistakes. Exactly how much penalties directly control the outcome of any game is up for debate, but it's still a good idea to just not have them. Getting flagged reflects a lack of discipline, and Alabama might be playing its least disciplined football ever under Nick Saban. The team ranks 129th out of 131 in FBS with 8.7 penalties per game, and is second to last with 78 total infractions. Part of Alabama's difficulty on the road this year is due to these little mistakes and correcting them goes a long way in remedying these larger issues.

Fast Facts

— Saban is 13-2 against Ole Miss as Tide coach

— Kiffin is 0-3 against Alabama as Rebels coach

— Alabama averages 466.5 total yards against Ole Miss under Saban and surpassed 600 yards in three games

— Rebels are 9th nationally in 3rd down offense (51.2%)

— 19 Alabama receivers have caught a pass this season, 2nd most nationally

— Ole Miss is 4th in FBS allowing 0.78 sacks per game

— Alabama is 6th nationally scoring 41.8 points per game this season

— Rebels' Jaxson Dart is 1st in SEC with 14.5 yards per pass completion

— Tide has allowed just 8 sacks, one for ever 54.4 pass attempts

— Ole Miss averages 20.7 seconds per play, 3rd fastest in FBS

— Alabama is 2nd in SEC and 3rd nationally with 5.88 yards per carry

— Rebs have allowed 7 sacks this year, 4th fewest nationally

— Bama has scored 40-plus points in 45 of its last 65 games, most nationally

— Ole Miss leads SEC with 63 plays of 20-plus yards

— Alabama is 5th nationally in 3rd down defense (27.7%)

— Rebels are 21-0 when leading after 3 quarters under Kiffin and 1-7 when trailing

— Crimson Tide is 6th nationally allowing 4.39 yards per play

— Ole Miss is 4-8 when allowing 30-plus points under Kiffin

Who wins, and why?

Just how "down" is the Crimson Tide? It's the trendy thing now to say that Nick Saban is washed — even Paul Finebaum is doing it — but it's worth remembering that Alabama lost both its games on the final play and is 4 combined points away from being undefeated and likely the No. 1 team in the CFP rankings.

But it's not those things, and it's because of some structural issues on this roster that have been visible to keen observers going back to the Texas game.

The secondary alignment is not locking down receivers the way it has. The receivers are not creating enough space to bring in the long gainers and spread out defenses. The pass rush isn't as dominant off the edge as it can be. The pass pro has been lacking. And of course, the flags.

Alabama still has two aces in its back pocket: Bryce Young and its run defense.

The team has allowed more than three yards per carry in just three games this season: at Arkansas, at Tennessee, and at LSU, going 1-2 in those matchups. Ole Miss has averaged under 5 ypc just once, the loss at LSU, and is 10th nationally with 5.6 on the year. Alabama's pursuit group in close range near the line holding (or not holding) contain against the Rebels' backs should decide the game.

And so should the Crimson Tide's quarterback: the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has proved he can turn a game on a single play with a combination of mobility, accuracy, and creativity on the fly. Jaxson Dart is a gifted dual threat, but he doesn't have the moxie or the athletic prowess of Bryce Young, whose skill set is both proven and unpredictable enough to tilt things in the Tide's favor.

College Football HQ Prediction: Alabama 36, Ole Miss 30

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Published Nov 12, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.