Arkansas vs. Mississippi State odds, spread, lines: Week 6 college football picks, predictions by computer model

College Football Power Index picks, predictions for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State

A pair of SEC West rivals - one newly unranked, and one newly ranked - meet up as Arkansas takes on Mississippi State in college football's Week 6 action on Saturday.

Arkansas is coming off its second straight loss of the season, dropping games to Texas A&M and Alabama in succession, while the Bulldogs are 4-1 with a loss at LSU and a win over A&M.

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What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Arkansas vs. Mississippi State odds, spread, predictions

Week 6 college football picks: Arkansas vs. Mississippi State

The index is siding with the home team by a large margin, as Mississippi State has the outsized 75.7 percent chance to defeat Arkansas on Saturday.

That leaves the Razorbacks a 24.3 percent chance to beat the Bulldogs and avoid what would be a third straight loss.

The oddsmakers project a closer game, as Mississippi State comes in the narrow 6.5 point favorites, according to the line at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 62 points for the matchup.

Arkansas checks in at No. 41 on the index's 131 college football rankings this week after the loss to Alabama and is projected to win just 5.9 games this season.

That projection comes as FPI estimates that Arkansas will be 6.2 points better on average than the teams on its schedule.

Mississippi State moved up to No. 17 on the FPI rankings, a jump of 2 spots, projected to win 7.7 games on the year, and expected to be 12.8 points better on average than its opponents going forward.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. USC
7. Oklahoma State
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. Utah
12. Oregon
13. Kentucky
14. NC State
15. Wake Forest
16. BYU
17. TCU
18. UCLA
19. Kansas
20. Kansas State
21. Washington
22. Syracuse
23. Mississippi State
24. Cincinnati
25. LSU

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