Clemson vs. NC State odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Picks, predictions for NC State vs. Clemson on the Week 5 college football schedule

A pair of perfect ACC rivals meet up in Death Valley for a crucial division matchup between top 25 ranked teams as NC State visits Clemson in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Both teams come in at 4-0, although this is the Wolfpack's first game in ACC play, while Clemson is already 2-0 in the conference after defeating Georgia Tech in the opener and Wake Forest in overtime last Saturday.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Clemson vs. NC State odds, spread, predictions

Week 5 college football picks: Clemson vs. NC State

The index is siding with the home team by a surprising margin, as Clemson has the outsized 83.5 percent chance to defeat NC State in the game.

That leaves the Wolfpack a 16.5 percent shot at upsetting the Tigers on the road in their conference debut.

The oddsmakers project a close game, as Clemson comes in the 6.5 point favorites, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. Other books set the over/under mark at anywhere from 41 to 42.5 points for the matchup.

Clemson boasts a No. 5 position on the index's 131 college football rankings after defeating Wake Forest last weekend, no change from week to week.

FPI projects Clemson to be the favorite to win the ACC with 58.4 percent likelihood, in addition to a 42.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 4.9 percent shot to win the national championship.

That last mark may not seem very high, but it's actually good for the fourth-best position nationally, behind Georgia, Ohio State, and leader Alabama.

The computer estimates that Clemson will win 11.1 games on the year and projects it will be an average of 19.1 points better than the other teams on its schedule week to week going forward.

AP top 25 voters kept Clemson in the No. 5 position and bumped up NC State to the No. 10 slot, a jump of 2 spots after it defeated Connecticut. 

FPI predicts the Wolfpack will win 8.6 games this season and be 8.5 points better than the teams on its schedule on average.

Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. USC
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. NC State
11. Penn State
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. Ole Miss
15. Washington
16. Baylor
17. Texas A&M
18. Oklahoma
19. BYU
20. Arkansas
21. Minnesota
22. Wake Forest
23. Florida State
24. Pittsburgh
25. Kansas State

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