College football breakup is coming soon, Notre Dame AD predicts
Division I college football as we know it could be headed for the pages of history. And it could happen as soon as the next decade, according to Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick.
College football has changed in so many important ways in recent years: the introduction of NIL rules, the ever-bigger battle for media rights and the billions that flow from them, and the revolution caused by the transfer portal.
Not if, but when
Those changes signal a split at the top of the sport that is "inevitable."
“Absent a national standard, which I don’t see coming, I think it’s inevitable,” Swarbrick told Sports Illustrated. “Mid-30s would be the logical time.”
That gives us as little as 10 years to enjoy the sport as we currently know it.
Too top heavy
Swarbrick also pointed to the financial situation between the various conferences. With the SEC and Big Ten running away with most of the money, that could create a situation that's too top-heavy to sustain the current model.
“We’re going to have these two conferences that have so distanced themselves from anyone else financially,” Swarbrick said.
“That’s where I see it starting to break down. There are so many schools trying to get out of their current conference, and they can’t get there.”
What's to come?
As to what college football will look like in the future? It's anyone's guess.
There has been some speculation that the sport could embrace a "super league" model like what the big European soccer clubs attempted last year.
In that (now junked) scheme, the most prestigious teams proposed breaking away from their national leagues and forming a single, NFL-like association.
Other ideas include Division I conferences breaking away from the NCAA altogether, an idea that picked up steam when the NCAA failed to take the lead on, or even remotely control, the tidal wave of NIL reforms that happened last offseason.
The NCAA hoped that Congress would get involved and set a national standard, but Republicans and Democrats never came to an agreement on what that standard would be. And they're not expected to going forward, either.
Whatever happens and when, Swarbrick knows one thing: no one's coming to help.
“We’re not getting [reform leadership] from the NCAA,” he said bluntly.
“It’s going to have to come from elsewhere. It’s interesting to see how challenging it is to get the university presidents to work together. It’s not that they’re resistant to it. They’ve just got too many things going on.”
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