College football Week 12 picks, predictions by computer model

Week 12 college football picks, according to the Football Power Index projection models

With just two regular season games left on the schedule, the college football season is poised to finally sort out the major conference and playoff races.

What can we expect from the Week 12 slate of games? This week, we turn to FPI to guide us in making our own predictions for the biggest matchups.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Devised by ESPN analysts, its rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football Week 12 picks

College football Week 12 picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Early college football picks

Navy at UCF pick: The index favors the Knights by an overwhelming 90.6 percent likelihood to win the game and stay in front of the AAC title chase. College Football HQ pick: UCF wins, 34-17

Illinois at Michigan pick: Expect another big win for the Wolverines, who have the 90.7 percent edge in this game against the one-time favorites in the Big Ten West, and, though they lost two straight games, still play a physical brand of defense. College Football HQ pick: Michigan wins, 33-16

TCU at Baylor pick: The computer is siding with the visiting Horned Frogs to stay undefeated and in College Football Playoff contention, but only just: with a narrow 51.2 percent shot to win. College Football HQ pick: TCU wins, 33-30

Austin Peay at Alabama pick: Don't lose any sleep, Crimson Tide fans, as Alabama has the 99.6 percent shot to win the traditional late-season walkover on Saturday with the Iron Bowl on tap. College Football HQ pick: Alabama wins, 56-3

Louisiana at Florida State pick: Coming off two huge wins against ACC rivals and back in the rankings, the Seminoles are favored against the Sun Belt visitors by a 93.0 percent margin. College Football HQ pick: Florida State wins, 37-16

Florida at Vanderbilt pick: Vandy just knocked off a ranked Kentucky team to end a 26-game SEC losing streak, but isn't favored against the Gators, who have a 81.8 percent chance to win Saturday. College Football HQ pick: Florida wins, 34-20

Virginia Tech at Liberty pick: Tech has lost seven straight and eclipsed 20 points in just three of them, and the 8-2 Flames just dropped a 3-point decision to UConn, but have the 74.9 percent odds to win here. College Football HQ pick: Liberty wins, 30-17

Afternoon college football picks

Kansas State at West Virginia pick: The Mountaineers are still trying to become bowl eligible, but the Wildcats have the 71.7 percent chance to win here and stay in the Big 12 title chase. College Football HQ pick: Kansas State wins, 31-23

Boston College at Notre Dame pick: BC is coming off a huge win at NC State, but the Irish are on a roll, winning four straight including a statement over Clemson, and now have a 93.1 percent shot to make it five. College Football HQ pick: Notre Dame wins, 32-13

Georgia vs. Kentucky pick: The index favors Georgia by a 93.0 percent margin to stay undefeated against a UK team that is 2-3 in its last five games and just dropped an L at home to Vandy. College Football HQ pick: Georgia wins, 37-13

Ohio State at Maryland pick: Give the Buckeyes a safe 90.2 percent chance to be perfect going into the Michigan game against a Terps team that scored 10 total points the last two weeks. College Football HQ pick: Ohio State wins, 43-13

Miami at Clemson pick: The loss to Notre Dame might sink the Tigers' playoff chances. Or it may not, if they stay at one loss and win the ACC title. Beating Miami is the next step, which Clemson has the 90.7 percent likelihood of doing. College Football HQ pick: Clemson wins, 33-13

Penn State at Rutgers pick: The path to 10 wins is still there for the Nittany Lions, who have 91.3 percent odds to defeat a Rutgers team that averages under 20 points per game. College Football HQ pick: Penn State wins, 32-13

Texas at Kansas pick: The computer favors Texas with the 77.0 percent chance to avoid a repeat of last season's loss to the Jayhawks, who, after a 5-0 start, have dropped four of the last five. College Football HQ pick: Texas wins, 34-27

Georgia Tech at North Carolina pick: UNC clinched a berth in the ACC title game and even this defense should fare well against a Tech team that averages 17 points per game. Carolina has an 89.1 percent chance to win. College Football HQ pick: North Carolina wins, 41-20

Primetime college football picks

Tennessee at South Carolina pick: Big Orange needs style points to impress the committee, but this offense isn't quite as flashy on the road, even if the Vols have the 89.4 percent chance to win. College Football HQ pick: Tennessee wins, 42-23

Ole Miss at Arkansas pick: Coming off a heartbreaker against the Tide, the Rebels have a 67.9 percent likelihood to knock off the Hogs, who are questionable at quarterback right now. College Football HQ pick: Ole Miss wins, 33-27

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma pick: The books like the Sooners in Bedlam, and so does the index, which gives OU a 61.4 percent chance to win. College Football HQ pick: Oklahoma State wins, 34-28

USC at UCLA pick: The computer favors Southern Cal by a 60.5 percent margin over the rival Bruins to stay in the Pac-12 title hunt, but watch the Trojans' defense against UCLA's excellent skill options. College Football HQ pick: USC wins, 37-34

Utah at Oregon pick: FPI is predicting a second straight win for a visitor at Autzen, as the Utes have the narrow 51.8 percent likelihood to beat the Ducks. College Football HQ pick: Oregon wins, 31-27

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