College football computer picks: Week 10 predictions by Football Power Index

Expert picks, predictions by the FPI computer geniuses for the top games on the Week 10 college football schedule

Week 10 of the college football schedule is here and it's time to make our final picks and predictions for what should be a very impactful weekend of games.

That includes a major matchup between Georgia and Tennessee for what appears to be the right to represent the East Division in the SEC Championship Game and from there, a shot at the College Football Playoff.

Alabama and LSU square off in the primetime slate to help sort out the intriguing SEC West title chase as the Crimson Tide looks to avoid losing a second game that would bounce it from the playoff picture, and LSU looks to earn what would be the statement victory of the Brian Kelly tenure.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football Week 10 picks

Week 10 college football picks / USA Today Images

Rankings reflect College Football Playoff top 25

No. 2 Ohio State at Northwestern prediction: FPI estimates that Ohio State has the overwhelming 98.4 percent chance to defeat Northwestern, which has the 1.6 percent shot to return the favor.

Texas Tech at No. 7 TCU prediction: Undefeated TCU, the last perfect team in the Big 12, has the 77.4 percent chance to defeat Texas Tech, and the Red Raiders in turn have the 22.6 percent shot to upset the Horned Frogs.

No. 17 North Carolina at Virginia prediction: FPI gives the Tar Heels a 73.1 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers and stay firmly in the lead for the ACC Coastal. Virginia has the 26.9 percent shot to beat Carolina.

No. 19 Tulane at Tulsa prediction: The new favorites in the AAC, Tulane has the 74.5 percent chance to defeat Tulsa and move to 8-1 on the season.

Florida at Texas A&M prediction: The computer gives the Aggies a 67.2 percent chance to defeat the Gators, who have the 32.8 percent shot to win. Both teams have one win in SEC games this season.

Baylor at Oklahoma prediction: The defending Big 12 champion Bears have the slight 52.5 percent shot to defeat the Sooners, who have the 47.5 percent chance of victory.

Afternoon college football picks

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No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia prediction: The game of the season up to now, Georgia has the outsized 74.5 percent chance to beat the top-ranked Volunteers, who have the 25.5 percent shot to stay undefeated themselves.

No. 8 Oregon at Colorado prediction: No worries for Oregon, who appear on track to its eighth straight game with a projected 95.6 percent likelihood.

No. 15 Penn State at Indiana prediction: Losers of two of their last three, the Nittany Lions are on track for a win, with an 83.9 percent chance to defeat Indiana on the road. The 3-5 Hoosiers have the 16.1 percent chance of victory.

Michigan State at No. 16 Illinois prediction: One of college football's best scoring defenses has Illinois in position to win the Big Ten West, and this week has the 68.2 percent shot to beat the Spartans, who are 1-4 in conference games.

No. 18 Oklahoma State at Kansas prediction: Suddenly the Cowboys' shot at the Big 12 title is in trouble, but they have the 53.8 percent odds to defeat the Jayhawks, whose once-superb season now features three straight losses.

No. 25 UCF at Memphis prediction: Now sitting at No. 2 in the AAC title race, the Knights have the 58.6 percent chance to beat Memphis, which sits at 41.4 percent to upset UCF and move to .500 in conference games.

Primetime college football picks

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU prediction: With the SEC West title apparently on the line, not to mention the Tide's chance at the College Football Playoff, the computers favor Alabama by a comfortable 76.4 percent chance. LSU has the 23.6 percent shot to pull off the upset at home.

No. 24 Texas at No. 13 Kansas State prediction: Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns have the 61.9 percent shot to defeat the Wildcats, who are 10 points away from being undefeated in Big 12 play. K-State has the 38.1 percent shot to defend its home field.

No. 4 Clemson at Notre Dame prediction: ACC title favorite Clemson has the 64.8 percent shot to take down the Fighting Irish and avenge its loss on that field in 2020, when it was No. 1 in the polls. ND sits at 35.2 percent to win.

No. 5 Michigan at Rutgers prediction: Don't worry Wolverine fans, the FPI favors this team by an easy 95.2 percent likelihood to beat the Scarlet Knights, who have the 4.8 percent shot at the upset.

Arizona at No. 14 Utah prediction: Looks like an easy week for the Utes, who have the 94.5 percent chance to move to 7-2 and stay in the Pac-12 title chase.

Florida State at Miami prediction: Once upon a time, this was one of college football's best rivalry games. This year, not so much, but the Seminoles have the 60.8 percent chance to sink The U, according to the projections.

No. 21 Wake Forest at No. 22 NC State prediction: No Devin Leary, no problem, as the Wolfpack has the narrow 58.8 percent shot to knock off Wake at home.

No. 12 UCLA at Arizona State prediction: The loss at Oregon still stings, but the Bruins should be okay this week, with a 71.8 percent chance to win Saturday.

California at No. 9 USC prediction: There's no margin for error for the Trojans, already at one loss, but this weekend with the easy 91.4 percent chance to defeat Cal at home and move to 8-1 on the season.

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