College football computer picks: Week 11 predictions for biggest games

Expert picks, predictions by the FPI computer for the top games on the Week 11 college football schedule

Week 11 of the college football season is on tap and with the conference and CFP races getting clearer as each weekend goes on.

Georgia made its case for playoff inclusion after a statement win over Tennessee at home, while Clemson and Alabama likely bounced themselves from the final four after road losses to Notre Dame and LSU, respectively.

Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan are still both undefeated and seemingly headed for a face-off in The Game that could double as the Big Ten's play-in game for the right to make the College Football Playoff as conference champion.

What can we expect from the Week 11 slate of games? This week, we turn to FPI to guide us in making our own predictions for the biggest matchups.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Devised by ESPN analysts, its rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football Week 11 picks

Week 11 college football picks

Early college football picks

Missouri at Tennessee prediction: FPI projects Tennessee has the comfortable 92.8 percent chance to win the game, compared with Missouri's 7.2 percent likelihood. College Football HQ pick: Tennessee wins, 40-17

Indiana at Ohio State prediction: The computers favor the Buckeyes by a 98.5 percent margin, compared with Indiana's 1.5 percent chance to win. College Football HQ pick: Ohio State wins, 48-9

LSU at Arkansas prediction: SEC West favorite LSU comes in with a 72.4 percent chance to defeat the Razorbacks, who have the 27.6 percent shot to upset the Tigers. College Football HQ pick: LSU wins, 33-28

Purdue at Illinois prediction: The favorites in the Big Ten West, the Illini come in with the 65.5 percent chance of victory, while Purdue has the 34.5 percent chance to upset. College Football HQ pick: Illinois wins, 26-17

Vanderbilt at Kentucky prediction: Losers in three of the last five, Kentucky owns the 88.6 percent chance of victory this week, while Vanderbilt has an 11.4 percent shot to win. College Football HQ pick: Kentucky wins, 33-14

Oklahoma at West Virginia prediction: The 5-4 Sooners have a narrow 58.0 percent shot to take down the Mountaineers, who have a respectable 42.0 percent chance to defend home field. College Football HQ pick: Oklahoma wins, 34-27

Notre Dame at Navy prediction: Fresh off the win over Clemson, the Irish have a 91.1 percent chance to take down the 3-6 Midshipmen. College Football HQ pick: Notre Dame wins, 30-13

Liberty at UConn prediction: The 8-1 Flames come in with the favorable 84.0 percent chance of victory, but the Huskies can still become bowl eligible if they beat Army next weekend. College Football HQ pick: Liberty wins, 31-16

Afternoon college football picks

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Louisville at Clemson prediction: Coming off the loss at Notre Dame, Clemson should defend its home win streak with a 76.2 percent chance of victory, while Louisville has the 23.8 percent shot to upset. College Football HQ pick: Clemson wins, 30-22

Nebraska at Michigan prediction: On track to stay undefeated this week, Michigan has the 97.1 percent shot to beat the Cornhuskers. College Football HQ pick: Michigan wins, 40-10

Alabama at Ole Miss prediction: Now at two losses, the Crimson Tide are on a path to avoid a third, with the 75.3 percent shot to beat the Rebels, who in turn have a 24.7 percent chance at the upset. College Football HQ pick: Alabama wins, 36-26

Maryland at Penn State prediction: The path to 10 wins is still available for Penn State, which has a 77.9 percent chance of victory this week. College Football HQ pick: Penn State wins, 36-23

UCF at Tulane prediction: The battle for first place in the AAC goes to UCF in an upset, according to the computers, which give the Knights a close 51.9 percent chance to win, compared with Tulane at 48.1 percent. College Football HQ pick: Tulane wins, 27-23

Wisconsin at Iowa prediction: The Badgers are on course to move above .500 in Big Ten play with a 51.4 percent chance to defeat Iowa. College Football HQ pick: Wisconsin wins, 23-13

Boston College at NC State prediction: Another sure thing at home for the Wolfpack as FPI projects a 90.8 percent chance of victory over the 2-win Eagles. College Football HQ pick: NC State wins, 31-13

South Carolina at Florida prediction: The up and down Gators are on course for a win with 70.8 percent likelihood over the Gamecocks, who have won four of the last five overall. College Football HQ pick: Florida wins, 33-24

Primetime college football picks

Georgia at Mississippi State prediction: Fresh off a statement win over the Vols, the defending national champs have the 84.2 percent chance to silence the cowbells and inch closer towards the SEC title game. College Football HQ pick: Georgia wins, 37-16

Washington at Oregon prediction: It's tough to beat Oregon right now and especially at home, as the Ducks have the 77.5 percent chance to defeat rival UW, which has the 22.5 percent shot at the upset. College Football HQ pick: Oregon wins, 41-28

Kansas State at Baylor prediction: Suddenly, K-State has lost two of the last three, while Baylor has won three straight and has the 61.2 percent shot to win this week, while the Wildcats come in with 38.8 percent likelihood. College Football HQ pick: Baylor wins, 27-24

TCU at Texas prediction: TCU needs to avoid another slow start as the computers favor the Longhorns by a 73.0 percent margin, as do the books by a touchdown. College Football HQ pick: Texas wins, 34-27

North Carolina at Wake Forest prediction: Wake has dropped the last two, but should find lanes against the Tar Heel secondary as the Deacons have a 54.2 percent chance of victory, compared with UNC's 45.8 percent shot. College Football HQ pick: North Carolina wins, 39-34

Texas A&M at Auburn prediction: A flu outbreak and an anemic offense have the Aggies in a tailspin as FPI favors Auburn by a 51.8 percent margin. College Football HQ pick: Auburn wins, 25-23

Florida State at Syracuse prediction: Good for over 40 points the last two games, both wins, the Seminoles have a 55.7 percent shot to hand the Orange what would be their fourth straight loss after that 6-0 start. College Football HQ pick: Florida State wins, 29-20

Stanford at Utah prediction: No drama for the Utes, who have the huge 94.1 percent chance to defeat the Cardinal, which is 1-6 in Pac-12 games this year. College Football HQ pick: Utah wins, 37-15

Arizona at UCLA prediction: Both these teams have some decent speed on the perimeter, but the Bruins have more, and the 88.4 percent chance to win and move to 9-1 as the Pac-12 race heats up. College Football HQ pick: UCLA wins, 42-26

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