College football predictions for playoff, national championship by 538

Predicting college football's future looking ahead to the playoff and the national title winner, according to 538 projections

We're halfway through the college football season and think we know enough about the major trends concerning the top teams to make some confident projections about where things are headed.

Naturally, all of that can change week to week, especially this season with its upsets on the field and changes to the top 25 rankings so far.

Where do things stand right now, according to the data? Let's check in with the prediction artists at 538 to see where the playoff and national title chase are trending.

College football predictions for playoff, national title by 538

College football predictions from 538

First four in

Ohio State. The favorite not just in the Big Ten, but nationally now after Alabama's close win last week, the Buckeyes have the 57 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and the 21 percent shot to win the national championship, both tops in the nation coming into Week 7.

Georgia. The new No. 1 team in the AP top 25 rankings and in the 538 "Elo rating" this week, the Bulldogs have a 54 percent shot to get back to the playoff, the second-best mark, and an 18 percent chance to repeat as national champions.

Alabama. Dropping to No. 3 on the AP poll this week despite staying perfect and after a close win over A&M, the Crimson Tide are tied with Ohio State at 21 percent likelihood to win the national title and rank just behind Georgia with a 52 percent chance to get back to the playoff.

Clemson. The odds-on favorite to win the ACC after two statement wins in the division, the Tigers have the 47 percent odds to make the College Football Playoff again, but a 9 percent shot to win the national championship, signifying a major gap between the top three and the consensus No. 4 team in the country.

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Outside looking in

Michigan. The solid No. 2 in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, with a chance to stay perfect heading into The Game in November. 28% to make College Football Playoff, 7% to win national championship

USC. Undefeated and great on offense as expected, but can the Trojans' defense hold up their end of the bargain? 20% to make College Football Playoff, 3% to win national championship

Tennessee. The top offense in college football right now, the Vols have a major clash with Alabama coming up this week. 20% to make College Football Playoff, 5% to win national championship

Oklahoma State. Perhaps the favorite in the Big 12 right now, the Pokes already own a win over Baylor and meet TCU this Saturday. 17% to make College Football Playoff, 2% to win national championship

Ole Miss. Perfect so far behind a better defense and a solid ground attack, the Rebs have a chance to throw some elbows in the SEC West. 14% to make College Football Playoff, 3% to win national championship

TCU. One of the nation's premier offenses with a battery of skill pieces, the Frogs are making major headway in Sonny Dykes' first season. 13% to make College Football Playoff, 1% to win national championship

Texas. Don't say the B-word, but with Quinn Ewers behind center, the Longhorns were on course to possibly beat Alabama and just demolished Oklahoma. 12% to make College Football Playoff, 1% to win national championship

(c/o 538)

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