Florida vs. USF odds, spread, lines: Week 3 college football picks, prediction by computer model
Florida hopes to revive its offensive fortunes after an early SEC loss with a home date against non-conference foe USF in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.
Kentucky took down the Gators last weekend in a game that saw Anthony Richardson's production take a hit, but UF should get back on sounder footing against the in-state AAC visitors, who come in at 1-1.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Florida vs. USF football picks, predictions
Week 3 college football schedule: Florida vs. USF
Football Power Index is siding with the Gators, who have the overwhelming 93.9 percent chance to defeat the Bulls on Saturday.
USF, by contrast, has the slim 6.1 percent shot at upsetting Florida.
The oddsmakers agree, naming Florida as the easy 24.5 point favorites for the matchup, according to the opening line at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 59 points.
Florida checks in at No. 37 overall in the computer's 131 college football rankings, a major drop of 13 points after last weekend's loss to Kentucky.
FPI now projects the Gators will win 6.6 games on the season with a 0.6 percent chance to win the SEC East and is calculated to be 8.0 points better on average than the teams on its slate.
AP top 25 voters dropped UF to No. 18 in the new poll, a fall of 6 points.
South Florida dropped 5 points in the FPI rankings to No. 110 overall and is projected to win 2.8 games on the season, while the computer estimates the team will be 11.9 points worse on average than the teams on its schedule.
College Football Power Index
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Oklahoma State
- Kentucky
- Arkansas
- Michigan State
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Tennessee
- NC State
- Baylor
- Florida
- Wake Forest
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Penn State
- Pittsburgh
- Texas A&M
- Oregon