Georgia vs. Florida preview, prediction: Week 9 college football picks

Preview and prediction for Georgia vs. Florida on the Week 9 college football schedule

Georgia vs. Florida preview, prediction: Week 9 college football picks

Week 9 college football picks: Georgia vs. Florida

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 29

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: CBS network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Georgia -22.5

Georgia ATS: 4-3

Florida ATS: 3-4

Over/under: 56

Moneyline: UF +1000, UGA -2500

FPI pick: Georgia 92.8%

Related: Georgia vs. Florida picks, predictions: Week 9 college football odds, spread, lines

Georgia vs. Florida: What you need to know

What to watch as Georgia and Florida face off

1. Which Anthony Richardson shows up? After the season opening win against Utah, some analysts pegged the Gators quarterback as a Heisman contender. Not so much these days after Florida's 1-3 start in the SEC and Richardson's own unpredictable output. AR has 6 TDs each passing and running, and while he presents a physical challenge, the QB also makes a lot of mistakes and hasn't progressed from week to week. His best throwing performance was against UT's 130th ranked pass defense. But against UK and its 14th ranked coverage unit, AR hit on 40% of his throws with 2 picks. Georgia needs to contain Richardson in the pocket and prevent him from improvising.

2. Matchup to watch: Florida's slot receivers against Georgia's mid-range defensive coverage. If the Bulldogs have a weakness on defense, it could be its linebacker rotation, which has been known to allow receivers to get in a rhythm in the middle part of the field. Florida has the pieces to test UGA linebackers Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon and can get favorable matchups with receivers like Ricky Pearsall and Xzavier Henderson, who have the speed and agility to create space and attack the immediate center of the field.

3. Florida on defense. You get the feeling it'll be a long day for this unit owing to its continued difficulty stopping teams on third down. Florida is 130th out of 131 in FBS allowing 52.6% conversion to opponents. Overall, the Gators are 112th nationally in yards per play allowed, 90th in passing yards surrendered per game, and place last in the SEC in most other important categories. Florida likes to create confusion with an array of different pressures and puts most of its effort towards its relative strength: getting to the quarterback. Georgia should find room to work its receivers and pass-catching backs in medium range and rip off consistent gainers.

Fast Facts

+ Florida is 1st in FBS with 6.4 yards per carry

+ Georgia is 2nd nationally allowing 9.1 points per game

+ Florida is 16th in FBS and 3rd in SEC with 213.1 rushing yards per game

+ Georgia is 61-4 when leading at halftime under Kirby Smart and 11-10 when trailing

+ UF has run for 200 yards in three straight games

+ Bulldogs are 72-6 under Smart allowing 29 or fewer points and 2-9 when allowing 30-plus

+ Gators' 5 sacks allowed are 5th fewest in FBS and 1st in SEC

+ Georgia's Stetson Bennett is 3rd nationally with 8.37 yards per play

+ Florida has out-gained opponents in 15 of last 20 games

+ UGA's Brock Bowers is nation's only player with a rushing and receiving TD of 75 yards each

+ Florida has scored 30 pts in 23 of its last 34 games (67.6%)

+ Georgia is 8th nationally with 41.7 points per game

+ Gators' 6 INT are tied for 3rd most in SEC

+ Bulldogs are 42 of 43 in the red zone (98%), with 29 TDs and 13 FGs, good for 2nd nationally

+ Florida is 3-0 when leading after 3 quarters and 1-3 when trailing

Georgia vs. Florida Prediction

This is gut-check time for Georgia. Yes, the team is undefeated and coming off two blowouts, but those close ones against Kent State and Missouri still stick out. This week starts a final month of the season loaded with tough games that will prove this team belongs in the College Football Playoff.

Florida will run the ball with some success early. It can get enough push off the line on early downs and create space for these skilled backs to churn out short and medium gains with some regularity.

The game plan for Georgia, then, is simple: devote most of its defensive resources to keeping Richardson in the pocket and closing down any running lanes he would use on the outside, and force Florida to a one-dimensional approach and win the game in the air. Something which, against this coverage team, it can't do.

College Football HQ Prediction: Georgia 37, Florida 17

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia (31 1st-place votes)
2. Ohio State (18)
3. Tennessee (13)
4. Michigan
5. Clemson (1)
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma State
10. USC
T-10. Wake Forest
12. UCLA
13. Penn State
14. Utah
15. Ole Miss
16. Syracuse
17. Illinois
18. LSU
19. Kentucky
20. Cincinnati
21. North Carolina
22. Kansas State
23. Tulane
24. NC State
25. South Carolina

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