Georgia vs. Missouri college football preview, prediction
Georgia vs. Missouri football preview, prediction
Week 5 college football schedule: Georgia vs. Missouri
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How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 1
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook
Line: Georgia -28
O/U: 54
Moneyline: UGA -20000 UM +2000
FPI pick: Georgia 94.8%
Related: Georgia vs. Missouri odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions
Georgia vs. Missouri: What you need to know
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1. Missouri at wide receiver. Anyone hoping to see 5-star wideout Luther Burden go against Georgia's secondary might be disappointed. Burden is dealing with an undisclosed injury from the Auburn game, and is questionable for this week. We'll see if that throws Mizzou's passing attack completely off schedule: Dominic Lovett is expected to occupy the WR1 post in Burden's absence. He already leads the SEC with 376 receiving yards on 21 catches and has 2 of the team's 4 receiving TDs. Still, Missouri will need a lot more from its supporting cast to move the ball at all in the air; only 2 of these players are over 100 total yards through a month.
2. Georgia in the red zone. Kirby Smart has been vocal about his team's struggles inside the opponents' 20 this season. Amid all the other elite offensive output, Georgia has scored 17 touchdowns on 26 red zone possessions, or 65 percent efficiency, settling for field goals on the other 8 trips. UGA's potential CFP competition is performing better: Alabama is at 80% TDs, Ohio State is 90%, and division rival Tennessee is 86%. Stetson Bennett has missed some potential open throws and Georgia can stand to further develop its run game, as none of its backs have gone over 30 yards on a single carry yet this season.
3. Don't overread the Kent State game. Playing a MAC team to a 12-10 lead early at home when you're the No. 1 defending national champion is a head-turner, but it's most likely that we can attribute that performance to apathy rather than any actual structural problems on the Georgia roster. We've seen this team demolish what looks like a decent Oregon team and strangled South Carolina on its home turf. Georgia still has the skill targets and the front seven to swallow a Missouri line that isn't protecting the pocket too well and coming off a loss to Auburn.
Georgia vs. Missouri: Fast Facts
+ Georgia is 23-1 when scoring a non-offensive TD under Kirby Smart
+ Missouri is 1-5 against AP ranked opponents under Eli Drinkwitz
+ Georgia is 69-6 when allowing 20-29 points under Smart and 2-9 when allowing 30-plus
+ Missouri is 12-1 when leading at halftime under Drinkwitz and 1-12 when trailing
+ Georgia is 44-3 when allowing under 300 total yards and 3-8 when allowing 400 or more under Smart
+ Mizzou is 10-5 when scoring first and 3-9 when not
+ Georgia is 4th nationally in scoring defense allowing 8.0 points per game
+ Missouri is 4-11 under Drinkwitz when losing TOP and 8-3 when winning it
+ Georgia scored 130 points before allowing a TD
+ Missouri is 5th in SEC allowing 301 yards per game
+ Georgia is 17th nationally with 42.2 points per game
+ Lovett is 1st in SEC with 5.25 rec per game and 376 total rec yards
+ Georgia has outscored opponents 106-16 in the first half of games this year
+ Missouri is 116th nationally in red zone offense
+ Georgia is plus-4 in turnover margin and scored 31 pts off turnovers
+ Missouri is 4-10 under Drinkwitz when converting third downs at 49% or worse and 9-4 when over 50%
+ Georgia has allowed 6 red zone possessions on defense, allowing scores on 67% of drives and TDs on 33%
Georgia vs. Missouri Prediction
You don't have to be a football scientist to know what's going to happen here. Kirby Smart's test this week is to drill into his team's head that it can't afford another showing like it had last week.
Missouri isn't doing enough on offense, and it will do even less now with Luther Burden on the field. Penalties and turnovers will continue to condemn this unit to another subpar outing while Georgia's front seven makes mincemeat of the Tigers' protection.
College Football HQ Prediction: Georgia 40, Missouri 13
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- USC
- Kentucky
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma State
- NC State
- Penn State
- Utah
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Washington
- Baylor
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- BYU
- Arkansas
- Minnesota
- Wake Forest
- Florida State
- Pittsburgh
- Kansas State