Iowa vs. Iowa State football preview, prediction

Your look at the Iowa vs. Iowa State game on the Week 2 college football schedule

A pair of Midwestern rivals meet up on the gridiron once again as Iowa and Iowa State battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy in college football's Week 2 action.

Both clubs are coming off victories in their season openers: for Iowa State, a convincing 31-point win over Southeast Missouri State, and for Iowa, an infamous 7-3 win over South Dakota State in which the Hawkeyes didn't register a touchdown in a legendarily poor offensive showing.

Here's what you need to know about this Week 2 matchup.

Iowa vs. Iowa State football preview, prediction

Week 2 college football schedule: Iowa vs. Iowa State

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 10

Time: 4 p.m. Eastern

TV: Big Ten Network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: Iowa -3.5

O/U: 40

Moneyline: IOWA -200, ISU +145

FPI pick: Iowa State 58.5%

Iowa vs. Iowa State: What to watch

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Iowa: Let's just say the Hawkeyes' debut was underwhelming. A win is a win, but this offense sputtered to a halt while Iowa's defense scored two safeties. The unit will improve moderately over the season, but you get the feeling it reached its ceiling with Spencer Petras at quarterback. There's a run game to develop here if Iowa wants after Leshon Williams had 72 yards in the opener. Defense is the Hawkeyes' specialty, and it should generate a turnover or two against a Cyclones team that's still trying to find itself.

Iowa State: Finding itself could prove an easy enough task looking at the core of the Cyclones' attack. Hunter Dekkers looked solid in the opener, going 25 of 31 for a shade under 300 yards with 4 TDs and a pick. He has a great target in Xavier Hutchinson, who scored 3 times off 8 catches for 128 yards. Add in Jirehl Brock, who had 16 carries for 104 yards and a TD, and Iowa State has the ingredients to build something interesting. 

Iowa vs. Iowa State: Fast Facts

+ Will McDonald has 22 sacks the last 2 years for Iowa State, the 2nd most nationally

+ Iowa has won the last 6 against ISU with a 175-98 scoring edge

+ Iowa State was 4 for 4 in the red zone in Week 1, rushing for two TDs and passing for two others

+ Iowa is 22-6 in its last 28 rivalry trophy games overall

+ 21 of Matt Campbell's 34 losses at ISU were by 1 score

+ Iowa is 110-19 under Kirk Ferentz when rushing for 150-plus yards in a game and 69-6 when rushing for over 200

+ Iowa State allowed 105 points in the 2nd half of games since the start of 2021, an average of 7.5 points

+ Iowa is 97-9 under Ferentz when scoring 30 or more in a game

+ Cyclones have limited opponents to under 300 yards in 20 games since 2017

+ Hawkeyes are 142-28 when leading at halftime under Ferentz

+ Iowa State was 2nd nationally in red zone offense last season, converting on 47 of 49 possessions (95.9 percent)

+ Iowa is 110-25 under Ferentz when winning the turnover battle

+ Iowa State has reached 400 yards of offense in 13 of its last 18 games

+ Iowa averages 20.4 points per game with Spencer Petras starting at QB

+ In 10 of 24 losses since 2017, ISU led or was tied in the 4th quarter

What happens?

Naturally, the attention around Iowa is going towards those 7 lonely points it scored in the opener, and that deserves serious criticism.

And unless last week was a ruse on Kirk Ferentz's part to conceal some secret, more daring offensive strategy to surprise his rival with, expect more of the same going forward.

But take a look at the Hawkeyes' defensive alignment, a unit that from the line back to safety is composed of a solid core of smart, physical pieces with the skill and power to stymie the Cyclones' still-burgeoning offensive attack.

Iowa State badly needs to cut down on its turnovers in this game. In last season's Cy-Hawk matchup, the Cyclones handed over 4 to their rivals, who scored 20 of their 27 points off them.

Take care of the football and open things up a little early, and the Cyclones should have the edge on the road.

College Football HQ Prediction: Iowa State 17, Iowa 10

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma
8. Notre Dame
9. Baylor
10. USC
11. Oklahoma State
12. Florida 
13. Utah
14. Michigan State
15. Miami
16. Arkansas
17. Pittsburgh
18. NC State
19. Wisconsin
20. Kentucky
21. BYU
22. Ole Miss
23. Wake Forest
24. Tennessee
25. Houston

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