Iowa vs. Iowa State football preview, prediction
A pair of Midwestern rivals meet up on the gridiron once again as Iowa and Iowa State battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy in college football's Week 2 action.
Both clubs are coming off victories in their season openers: for Iowa State, a convincing 31-point win over Southeast Missouri State, and for Iowa, an infamous 7-3 win over South Dakota State in which the Hawkeyes didn't register a touchdown in a legendarily poor offensive showing.
Here's what you need to know about this Week 2 matchup.
Iowa vs. Iowa State football preview, prediction
Week 2 college football schedule: Iowa vs. Iowa State
How to watch
When: Sat., Sept. 10
Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Line: Iowa -3.5
O/U: 40
Moneyline: IOWA -200, ISU +145
FPI pick: Iowa State 58.5%
Iowa vs. Iowa State: What to watch
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Iowa: Let's just say the Hawkeyes' debut was underwhelming. A win is a win, but this offense sputtered to a halt while Iowa's defense scored two safeties. The unit will improve moderately over the season, but you get the feeling it reached its ceiling with Spencer Petras at quarterback. There's a run game to develop here if Iowa wants after Leshon Williams had 72 yards in the opener. Defense is the Hawkeyes' specialty, and it should generate a turnover or two against a Cyclones team that's still trying to find itself.
Iowa State: Finding itself could prove an easy enough task looking at the core of the Cyclones' attack. Hunter Dekkers looked solid in the opener, going 25 of 31 for a shade under 300 yards with 4 TDs and a pick. He has a great target in Xavier Hutchinson, who scored 3 times off 8 catches for 128 yards. Add in Jirehl Brock, who had 16 carries for 104 yards and a TD, and Iowa State has the ingredients to build something interesting.
Iowa vs. Iowa State: Fast Facts
+ Will McDonald has 22 sacks the last 2 years for Iowa State, the 2nd most nationally
+ Iowa has won the last 6 against ISU with a 175-98 scoring edge
+ Iowa State was 4 for 4 in the red zone in Week 1, rushing for two TDs and passing for two others
+ Iowa is 22-6 in its last 28 rivalry trophy games overall
+ 21 of Matt Campbell's 34 losses at ISU were by 1 score
+ Iowa is 110-19 under Kirk Ferentz when rushing for 150-plus yards in a game and 69-6 when rushing for over 200
+ Iowa State allowed 105 points in the 2nd half of games since the start of 2021, an average of 7.5 points
+ Iowa is 97-9 under Ferentz when scoring 30 or more in a game
+ Cyclones have limited opponents to under 300 yards in 20 games since 2017
+ Hawkeyes are 142-28 when leading at halftime under Ferentz
+ Iowa State was 2nd nationally in red zone offense last season, converting on 47 of 49 possessions (95.9 percent)
+ Iowa is 110-25 under Ferentz when winning the turnover battle
+ Iowa State has reached 400 yards of offense in 13 of its last 18 games
+ Iowa averages 20.4 points per game with Spencer Petras starting at QB
+ In 10 of 24 losses since 2017, ISU led or was tied in the 4th quarter
What happens?
Naturally, the attention around Iowa is going towards those 7 lonely points it scored in the opener, and that deserves serious criticism.
And unless last week was a ruse on Kirk Ferentz's part to conceal some secret, more daring offensive strategy to surprise his rival with, expect more of the same going forward.
But take a look at the Hawkeyes' defensive alignment, a unit that from the line back to safety is composed of a solid core of smart, physical pieces with the skill and power to stymie the Cyclones' still-burgeoning offensive attack.
Iowa State badly needs to cut down on its turnovers in this game. In last season's Cy-Hawk matchup, the Cyclones handed over 4 to their rivals, who scored 20 of their 27 points off them.
Take care of the football and open things up a little early, and the Cyclones should have the edge on the road.
College Football HQ Prediction: Iowa State 17, Iowa 10
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Baylor
- USC
- Oklahoma State
- Florida
- Utah
- Michigan State
- Miami
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- Pittsburgh
- NC State
- Wisconsin
- Kentucky
- BYU
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- Wake Forest
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