Iowa vs. Kentucky picks, predictions: Music City Bowl schedule, spread, lines

Picks and predictions for Iowa vs. Kentucky in the 2022 Music City Bowl as the college football bowl schedule moves towards New Year's Day

College football bowl season takes a big step towards New Year's with a notable Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Music City Bowl between Kentucky and Iowa.

The game features two teams that failed to repeat their success from the year before, each coming in with 7-5 records after having won 10 games last season.

Iowa comes in playing behind the second-worst total offense in college football, ranking 130th in overall production, averaging just over 255 yards per game, and posting a meager 4.23 yards per play.

But the Hawkeyes are playing stronger late in the season, winning four of its last five games after starting things out with a 3-4 mark, thanks mostly to a strong defense stacked with fundamentally-sound playmakers at every level.

More: New Year's Eve college football bowl game schedule

Kentucky, by contrast, started off strongly, going 4-0 to begin the 2022 season, but went just 3-5 down the stretch, finishing with the 107th ranked total offense in college football, averaging 5.42 yards per play and compiling 336.3 yards per game.

Fans may not be familiar with many of the players at the top positions in this game after Kentucky quarterback Will Levis and running backs Chris Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke all opted out, while Iowa quarterbacks Spencer Petras (injury) and Alex Padilla (portal) won't play, either.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Iowa picks, predictions

Iowa vs. Kentucky picks, predictions

Kentucky prediction: The computers are siding with UK by the slimmest of margins, projecting it has a 50.5 percent chance to win the game outright.

Iowa prediction: That leaves the Hawkeyes with the 49.5 percent chance to pull off the upset, according to the index's projections.

Point spread: The oddsmakers take a different view, naming Iowa the 3 point favorites against Kentucky, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 31 | Over -118 | Under -110

Moneyline: Iowa -161 | Kentucky +125

Spread consensus pick: Iowa -3 (62% of bets on the Hawkeyes)

Music City Bowl betting analysis: "The Hawkeyes, who are 4-1 SU and ATS over their last four games, will edge this one out in a low-scoring affair. Oddsmakers opened this game with Kentucky as small 2-point favorites, but the betting line has completely flipped with Iowa now installed [as the favorite]. Follow the money and back the new betting favorite with slightly added juice." — Frank Taddeo, Sports Illustrated

College Football HQ prediction: Kentucky will struggle moving the ball behind freshman quarterback Destin Wade and without its top two rushers, especially against an Iowa defense that ranks 4th nationally and will have star middle linebacker and Butkus Award winner Jack Campbell on the field, and can score some itself when the offense won't, putting up 15 percent of the team's points (32 of 209) this season. Pick: Iowa -3

More: College football bowl game scores for 2022

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College Football Playoff top 25 rankings

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Clemson
8. Utah
9. Kansas State
10. USC
11. Penn State
12. Washington
13. Florida State
14. Oregon State
15. Oregon
16. Tulane
17. LSU
18. UCLA
19. South Carolina
20. Texas
21. Notre Dame
22. Mississippi State
23. NC State
24. Troy
25. UTSA

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