LSU vs. Arkansas preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

Preview and predictions for LSU vs. Arkansas on the Week 11 college football schedule

James Parks | Nov 12, 2022

LSU vs. Arkansas preview, prediction: Who wins, and why? /

Fresh off a statement win over Alabama, now Brian Kelly and LSU look to finish the season strong and clinch its position atop the SEC West as they take on Arkansas in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

LSU knocked off the Crimson Tide with a one-point win overtime last week and is now in pole position to take the division and play for the SEC Championship.

Arkansas is looking to avoid falling to .500 on the season and move to .500 in conference games, coming in at 5-4 overall and 2-3 against SEC competition.

Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.

LSU vs. Arkansas preview, prediction

LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels during a play in a college football game in the SEC. — Week 11 college football picks: LSU vs. Arkansas / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Nov. 12

Time: 11 a.m. Central

TV: ESPN network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Game lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook

LSU vs. Arkansas point spread: LSU comes into the game as narrow 3 point favorites to defeat Arkansas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Over/under: 64 points

Moneyline: LSU -161, Arkansas +125

FPI prediction: LSU has the 72.5 percent chance to win the game outright, compared to the 27.5 percent shot that Arkansas has to earn the upset, according to the Football Power Index computer that simulates teams' seasons 20,000 times to predict scores based on previous results and schedules.

LSU vs. Arkansas: What you need to know

Arkansas Razorbacks college football team schedule, rankings

1. LSU running the ball. Not long ago, this team was reeling from an ugly loss to the Vols, but since then has won three straight thanks in large part to an improved effort rushing the football, especially behind the gifted quarterback Jayden Daniels, who leads the team with 10 of its 25 rushing scores and 619 of its rushing yards, or 38% of the total, while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. That appears to be LSU's magic number: it's 6-0 when reaching that number in games and 2-2 when it doesn't.

2. Hogs on the ground. Arkansas ranks 10th nationally in total rushing production, averaging 234.4 yards per game, good for 2nd overall among SEC teams, behind just Ole Miss, the team whose backs LSU did a superb job of stopping in its statement win a few weeks ago. The Razorbacks are 4-1 on the year when they average over 5 yards per carry and have won 5 of 7 when averaging over 4 ypc. Raheim Sanders and KJ Jefferson are responsible for 72% of the team's ground yards and its rushing touchdowns. Arkansas can keep this close if it owns the line of scrimmage more often than not.

3. Arkansas' receivers. While this team's rushing capacity rightly gets most of the attention, this team has some promising speed on the perimeters, too. Matt Landers and Jadon Hazelwood are KJ Jefferson's top targets: Landers leads the team with 594 yards while Hazelwood has 553 yards, and both have scored three times. Both have big-play potential when moving in space, and LSU's secondary will have to repeat its formula against Alabama to match with the Hogs' deep threats.

Fast Facts

— Brian Kelly has won 17 straight games in November in his career

— Arkansas had a player run for 100 yards in 9 of its last 10 games

— LSU has played 212 straight snaps without a turnover

— Hogs have rushed for 200 yards in 7 games, 1st in SEC, 2nd nationally

— LSU has won 12 straight games when scoring at least 30 points

— Raheim Sanders is 6th nationally with 1,101 yards rushing for Arkansas

— LSU has scored on 10 of its 13 second-half drives in the last 3 games

— Arkansas is 3-10 under Sam Pittman when trailing after the 1st quarter

— Jayden Daniels is the only FBS quarterback to run for 600 yards and pass for 1,700 yards

— Arkansas is 5-0 this season when scoring 30 points and 0-2 when scoring less than 21

— LSU has allowed a TD in the third quarter in just one game this season

— Sanders is 1 of 2 FBS players with 1,000 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards

— LSU is 6-1 when allowing 24 or fewer points

— Arkansas is 15-2 when leading after 3 quarters and 1-12 when not under Pittman

— Daniels is 3rd nationally among QBs with 10 rushing TDs

Who wins, and why?

LSU has the quarterback and the receivers to test the deep portion of the field and open lanes against the Razorbacks' secondary, a unit that ranks second to last in the SEC, ahead of just Vanderbilt, and is one of two in the conference to surrender over 300 passing yards per game on average.

Advantage, LSU. But it will have to maintain its confidence running the ball against a Hogs run stop that is considerably better and more physical in the front seven, allowing just around 140 yards on the ground per game.

Arkansas will open some lanes for its ground attack behind an experienced blocking group — something LSU certainly doesn't have looking at all the combinations it's had to play this year — and Jefferson has the touch and the targets to build rhythm with intermediate throws and move the chains.

LSU will hear a ton of talk about this being a trap, but it can match the Razorbacks strength for strength, though it'll need all four quarters to prove it.

College Football HQ Prediction: LSU 30, Arkansas 26

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Published Nov 12, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.