LSU vs. Auburn college football preview, prediction
LSU vs. Auburn college football preview, prediction
Week 5 college football schedule: LSU vs. Auburn
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 1
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Line: LSU -8.5
O/U: 45.5
Moneyline: LSU -376 AUB +250
FPI pick: LSU 78.9%
Related: LSU vs. Auburn odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions
LSU vs. Auburn: What you need to know
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1. Don't overlook LSU. It's easy to after that heartbreaking, last-second game loss to Florida State off that missed kick. And while it's easy to shake off LSU's big wins against overmatched teams, it also pulled out an impressive 13-point comeback against Mississippi State, holding that superb offense to under 300 yards, forcing 2 turnovers, and racking up 21 unanswered points to put it away in a crucial early SEC West win. Not to mention a great 2nd half showing in that first game that put LSU in position to beat Florida State if not for that special teams blunder. If not for 1 point, LSU might be a ranked team.
2. Auburn's offense: not great. Quarterback and offensive line have not synced well together so far, and even Auburn's once promising run game has struggled. Auburn is 109th in FBS with 17.7 points per game, 99th in yards per play, 114th with .320 success on third down, and 92nd in first downs gained total. Together, AU's quarterbacks have 2 TDs and 6 INTs. The offense scored more than 25 just once, against an FCS team, had nothing against Penn State, and only beat Missouri on a missed kick and a weird fumble near the goal line.
3. At the line. That said, watch how well Auburn is able to clog the primary running lines defensively. And come off the edge against the pocket, racking up 47 quarterback pressures so far. That skill set poses a threat to LSU running the ball, which it's done well, ranking 28th nationally at just under 200 yards per game and went over 200 in the last 3 games. Quarterback Jayden Daniels leads the team running the ball, but Armoni Goodwin and Noah Cain have 9 of LSU's 13 running scores, and have to move the chains early to set the terms at the line early.
LSU vs. Auburn: Fast Facts
+ LSU has won 9 straight when scoring 30 points
+ Home team has won 18 of last 22 in this series
+ LSU has thrown a TD pass in 46 straight games
+ Auburn hasn't had a punt blocked in 170 straight games, the FBS lead
+ LSU is 16th nationally allowing 14.25 points per game
+ Auburn is 5-2 under Bryan Harsin when leading at halftime and 3-4 when not
+ LSU has thrown to 15 different receivers, 3rd most in SEC
+ Auburn is 1-3 when rushing for less than 100 yards under Harsin and 15-5 when over 100
+ LSU is 4th in SEC with 198.8 rushing yards per game
+ Auburn is 3-1 under Harsin when winning the turnover battle and 3-4 when losing it
+ LSU is 9th nationally in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 5 of only 8 possessions (.625)
+ Auburn is 25-1 since 2013 when scoring a non-offensive TD
+ LSU is 11th nationally in first down defense
+ Auburn has allowed 25 first qtr TDs in its last 70 games
+ LSU is 8th in the country with 146.5 passing yards allowed per game
+ Auburn is 1-5 under Harsin scoring fewer than 20 pts and 17-3 when scoring more than 20
+ LSU is 16th nationally in scoring defense (14.2 ppg)
Auburn vs. LSU Prediction
Looking over Auburn's situational records under Harsin, things become pretty clear: run for over 100 yards and score over 20 points, and they usually win.
Struggling in protection and playing out of sorts at quarterback doesn't help put points on the board, and neither will LSU's moderately improved defensive performance, but Tank Bigsby can certainly help out.
The gifted back wasn't featured prominently in the Missouri game, finishing with just 44 yards and a 2.3 ypc average with a score, leading to criticism of Harsin's in-game strategy exploiting that ability. But if he can test LSU's interior lanes early, this game should be closer than anticipated.
Otherwise, Jayden Daniels, a group of talented deep threats, and LSU's own burgeoning backfield should carry the day, giving Brian Kelly an extremely valuable second win in the SEC West, and pushing Bryan Harsin one step closer to the unemployment line.
College Football HQ Prediction: LSU 29, Auburn 16
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- USC
- Kentucky
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma State
- NC State
- Penn State
- Utah
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Washington
- Baylor
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- BYU
- Arkansas
- Minnesota
- Wake Forest
- Florida State
- Pittsburgh
- Kansas State