LSU vs. Florida preview, prediction: Week 7 college football picks

Preview and prediction for Saturday's game between LSU and Florida on the Week 7 college football schedule

The only first-year coaches in the SEC will be on the same field Saturday as Brian Kelly and LSU square off with Billy Napier and Florida in college football's Week 7 action from the Swamp.

There have been the predictable ups and downs that comes with new management, and both come in unranked and at 4-2 on the year.

LSU opened up SEC play at 2-0 before taking an ugly beating from Tennessee at home last weekend, while Florida is coming off its first conference win, over Missouri, ahead of facing No. 1 Georgia next week.

Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.

LSU vs. Florida preview, prediction

Week 7 college football schedule: LSU vs. Florida / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 15

Time: 7 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. CT

TV: ESPN network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook

Line: Florida -2.5

LSU ATS: 3-3

Florida ATS: 3-3

Over/under: 50.5

Moneyline: LSU +110 UF -143

FPI pick: LSU 62.8%

Related: LSU vs. Florida picks, predictions, Week 7 college football odds, spread, lines

LSU vs. Florida: What you need to know

USA Today Images

1. Battle at the lines. It'll be a contest of strengths when LSU's defensive front seven goes head to head with the Gators protection unit and rushing attack. Florida has formed a reliable-enough wall around its offense, allowing its backs to rack up 213 yards per game and score 16 rushing touchdowns, the 6th most nationally. On the other side, LSU will debut its 6th different OL combination of the year - and won't have guard Garrett Dellinger - as it prepares to guard against an athletic Gator front seven that has the power to shrink the pocket from the edges.

2. Florida will run. And it can, especially after watching how poorly the otherwise gifted LSU front seven fared against Tennessee's ground attack. UT racked up 263 yards and two touchdowns in that game, and now comes an even more talented UF rushing tandem to repeat the formula. Florida's backs are good at getting in space, rank 6th in ypc, are getting enough room on the interior to churn out the short gains, and have a mobile threat in quarterback Anthony Richardson. 

3. LSU needs to start fast. Florida has definitely struggled stopping above average offenses, ranking 98th nationally in yards per play allowed, just 125th out of 131 in FBS in opponent third down conversion success, and is 91st in overall opponent success rate. Jayden Daniels needs to work his receivers over the middle portion of the field early to push things downfield and build some early momentum. By spreading out the Gators' coverage unit, LSU can more easily crack open some running lanes for its backs and keep Florida on the sideline.

LSU vs. Florida: Fast Facts

+ LSU has won 9 straight games when scoring 30 points

+ Florida ran for 100-plus yards in 10 of last 11 against LSU

+ LSU is tied for 1st in SEC with 12 takeaways

+ Florida has rushed for 200 yards in 4 of 6 games this season

+ LSU has won 4 of the last 5 games against Florida

+ Anthony Richardson has 20 career TDs: 4 of 40-plus yards, and 9 of 25-plus yards

+ Florida-LSU series has been decided by 27 combined points the last 6 games in Gainesville

+ Florida has allowed 4 sacks, 5th fewest in FBS and 2nd in SEC

+ LSU is 0-1 when scoring fewer than 20 pts under Brian Kelly and 4-1 when scoring 20 or more

+ Florida has out-gained opponents in 15 of last 19 games

+ LSU is 3-0 under Kelly when leading after the third quarter

+ Florida is 2nd in SEC with 9 fourth down conversions

+ LSU has completed passes to 15 players, 3rd most in SEC

+ Florida is 4th in SEC with 213.7 rushing yards per game

+ LSU has outscored opponents 92-54 in the second half this season

LSU vs. Florida Prediction

Anthony Richardson's skill as a pocket passer is very much in dispute. By getting consistent pressure off the edges, shrinking the pocket, and closing down any running lanes on the outside, you can easily slow down Florida's passing attack.

That will be the foundation of LSU's game plan, in addition to getting its own backs going against a Gator defense that's 110th in rushing success rate. If the Tigers can move the ball consistently in both phases better than Florida can by running, it should have the overall edge. Just.

College Football HQ Prediction: LSU 30, Florida 28

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. UCLA
12. Oregon
13. TCU
14. Wake Forest
15. NC State
16. Mississippi State
17. Kansas State
18. Syracuse
19. Kansas
20. Utah
21. Cincinnati
T-22. Kentucky
T-22. Texas
24. Illinois
25. James Madison

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