LSU vs. Florida State football preview, prediction

Your look at LSU vs. Florida State on the Week 1 college football schedule

James Parks | Sep 4, 2022

LSU vs. Florida State football preview, prediction /

Game 1 of the Brian Kelly experience kicks off Sunday night as the new-look LSU Tigers open the 2022 college football season against Florida State.

LSU is just three years removed from running the table and winning the College Football Playoff, but hasn't look like a national title contender since.

Sunday is LSU's first chance to prove again that it belongs in that conversation, lining up against a Seminoles team that hasn't lived up to expectations under Mike Norvell.

Here's what you need to know about the Week 1 matchup.

LSU vs. Florida State football preview, prediction

LSU Tigers college football team schedule, rankings — LSU and Florida State face off in Week 1

How to watch

When: Sun., Sept. 4

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: ABC network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Florida State vs. LSU odds, spread, line

Line: LSU -3.5

O/U: 51

Moneyline: LSU -118 FSU -110

FPI pick: LSU 72.5%

LSU vs. Florida State: What to watch

Florida State Seminoles running back Trey Benson on a carry during a college football game in the ACC. — USA Today Images

1. Who is LSU? This team remains arguably the biggest unanswered question in college football. There's no question it has the recruiting base to stay competitive every season. And Brian Kelly is a proven head coaching commodity, but notably struggled on the national stage, especially against Southern teams and top 25 ranked opposition when at Notre Dame. This game will give us a very small, but important, sample size, of how Kelly has built his roster and how he works in certain game situations before embarking on the brutal SEC West schedule.

2. Florida State at quarterback. Watch how Jordan Travis starts out against LSU's secondary. He's a potential difference-maker at the position, throwing 15 TDs and six picks last fall, and he didn't have a turnover in five games. The Seminoles went 4-1 in that stretch. Now he leads an offense coming off its first 600-plus yard game since 2016. If the pass protection is there early, Travis can gain some valuable early momentum.

3. FSU's rushing attack. In their Week 0 win over Duquesne, the Seminoles racked up 406 yards on the ground, just the 5th 200-plus rushing yard game in school history, and the 1st time it had 3 100-yard ball carriers in the same game. Florida State wants to balance its attack and has the tools to get medium gains early. Duquesne may not exactly be LSU on the front seven, but so far the returns are very positive.

Florida State vs. LSU: Fast Facts

+ Florida State has 39 straight successful red zone trips, the longest active streak nationally

+ Jayden Daniels steps in at QB for LSU from Arizona State, where he had over 6,000 passing yards, 1,288 rushing yards and 45 total TDs

+ Mike Norvell averaged 37.8 points per game, the 3rd most among coaches since 2016

+ LSU is 34-9 all time in domed stadiums and 14-5 at the Superdome

+ FSU scored touchdowns on 31 of its 38 red zone trips, the most in the ACC, for a .738 success mark

+ Brian Kelly was 113-40 in 12 years at Notre Dame, passing Knute Rockne, and was 54-9 in the last 5 years

+ Florida State returns 80% of its receiving TD production from last season, in addition to 61% of its total offense and 75.4% of its receiving yards

+ LSU wideout Kayshon Boutte has 13 TD catches in 11 career starts

What happens?

Don't call it a "rebuild": While it's clearly a new era for LSU with Brian Kelly coming in, this team isn't exactly starting from scratch.

There's already a strong athletic base at the skill positions and enough accumulated depth defensively to stabilize things, and LSU did well enough in the transfer portal to expect this team to be good right away.

LSU will have the manpower on the line and behind it to prevent the Seminoles from cracking off another 400 yard rushing effort, but there will be some long gainers along the way.

Florida State has more playmakers than it did the last few years, but LSU should still have the advantage on third down in the second half.

College Football HQ Prediction: LSU 31, Florida State 24

College football rankings

According to AP Top 25 poll

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Published Sep 4, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.