Michigan vs. Penn State odds, spread, lines: Week 7 college football picks, predictions by computer model

College Football Power Index picks, predictions for Michigan vs. Penn State on the Week 7 schedule

A pair of Big Ten rivals meet at the Big House as Michigan hosts Penn State in a major division clash in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.

Michigan is coming off a road win at Indiana last weekend and Penn State off its idle week, and both are undefeated so far on the season.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction machine projects the game.

Michigan vs. Penn State picks, predictions

Week 7 college football picks: Michigan vs. Penn State

The computer is siding with the home team in a big way, as Michigan comes in with the 73.3 percent chance to defeat Penn State on Saturday.

That leaves the Nittany Lions the 26.7 percent shot to upset the Wolverines and become bowl eligible for the first time this season.

The oddsmakers also favor Michigan, but by a slim margin, as the 7 point favorites for the game, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under at 51.5 points for the matchup.

Michigan checks in at No. 5 on the computer's 131 college football rankings, a drop of 1 spot after last week's victory over Indiana.

Not a conventional power ranking, the FPI ranks team based on expected per-game point margin against average opponents on a neutral field. This week, the index estimates that Michigan is 20.8 points better than an average team.

FPI projects that Michigan will win 10.8 games this season and has a 37.3 percent chance to get back to the College Football Playoff, second in the Big Ten after conference leader Ohio State.

The computer ranks Penn State at No. 12 overall, projecting it will win 9.3 games this season and be 14.1 points better than opponents going forward.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. UCLA
12. Oregon
13. TCU
14. Wake Forest
15. NC State
16. Mississippi State
17. Kansas State
18. Syracuse
19. Kansas
20. Utah
21. Cincinnati
T-22. Kentucky
T-22. Texas
24. Illinois
25. James Madison

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