Ohio State vs. Iowa preview, prediction: Week 8 college football picks
A pair of Big Ten rivals meet in a cross-division showdown as No. 2 Ohio State welcomes Iowa in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
Both are coming off idle weeks seemingly headed in different directions.
Ohio State owns college football's No. 2 total offense and the sport's most productive scoring unit, averaging 48.8 points per game on average.
Iowa is a mixed bag: at 3-3, it boasts a credible threat defensively, but is good for just over two touchdowns per game, if the offense gets lucky.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Ohio State vs. Iowa preview, prediction
Week 8 college football picks: Ohio State vs. Iowa
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How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 22
Time: 12 p.m. ET, 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Ohio State -30
Iowa ATS: 3-3
Ohio State ATS: 3-2-1
Over/under: 49
Moneyline: Iowa +1800, OSU -7000
FPI pick: Ohio State 95.5%
Related: Ohio State vs. Iowa picks, predictions: Week 8 college football odds, spread, lines
Ohio State vs. Iowa: What you need to know
1. Iowa is for real on defense. As much attention as the Hawkeyes' offense, or lack thereof, gets, by far the strength of this team is its consistent, productive defensive rotation in all phases. Iowa is 13th nationally allowing 3.03 yards per carry, 2nd best allowing 3.83 yards per play, is the only team to not allow a play of scrimmage of 40 yards, is 3rd in scoring defense (9.8), 7th in total defense, 2nd in pass efficiency defense, and 3rd in passing yards allowed. Iowa plays with leverage at the line and has the discipline to occupy double teams and get their linebackers moving in space to limit gains at close range.
2. Not so much on offense. Iowa is currently fielding the worst offensive team in college football, 131st in FBS, dead last, at 238.7 yards per game total. That's in addition to scoring just 14.7 points per game, the fourth-worst mark in the nation. Key to those struggles is the performance of Iowa's front line, a unit that has seriously regressed since center Tyler Linderbaum left for the NFL. Iowa has allowed 18 sacks, 23rd nationally, and ranks 127th in rushing offense. This should be a field day for Ohio State's more aggressive front seven alignment and open things up in a big way for the secondary to completely shut down the deeper passing lanes.
3. Ohio State's injuries. There's still no word on if Jaxon Smith-Njigba will return this week from the lingering hamstring injury that's been nagging him since the opener. Expected to be the top receiver in college football this year, he had 1,606 yards last season and set national records in the Rose Bowl for receiving. Same for running backs TreVeyon Henderson (who didn't play against Rutgers) and Miyan Williams (out at Michigan State), who have dealt with minor issues the last few weeks, too. So far, the Buckeyes have found more than enough production from other sources, but need to have all hands on deck as the season progresses and the Big Ten title race draws closer.
Fast Facts
+ Iowa has allowed 10 or fewer points in 5 of 6 games
+ Ohio State is 1 of 2 teams (Georgia) to rank top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense
+ Iowa has forced 10 turnovers in 6 games, scoring 24 points off them
+ Ohio State is 6th nationally in 3rd down defense pct (27%)
+ Iowa is 19-65 under Kirk Ferentz when opponents score 25-plus points
+ Buckeyes are 10th nationally allowing 15.7 points per game
+ Iowa is 28-81 when trailing at halftime under Ferentz
+ Ohio State is 1st nationally with 24 plays of 30-plus yards
+ Hawkeyes are 97-9 under Ferentz when scoring 30-plus points
+ Bucks are 1st nationally allowing just 19 tackles for loss and fewest TFLs and sacks combined (23)
+ Iowa is 13th in red zone defense (.733)
+ Ohio State's CJ Stroud is 1st nationally with 24 TD passes
+ Iowa's defense has scored 16 points this season (2 TDs, 2 safeties)
+ Stroud is 1st in passer efficiency rating, yards per attempt, and points responsible for, and 2nd in yards per completion
Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction
Honestly, if the Buckeyes can just get a 14-0 lead, this is a win. Not to put too fine a point on this, but Iowa really can't move the ball right now.
It's last nationally in first downs per game, is 127th running the ball, and 120th throwing the ball. Iowa's only chance to ever really score is when its defense can get the occasional takeaway in scoring position.
But it can stop teams: the Hawkeyes held Michigan to just 327 total yards and kept that game close most of the day. Highly disciplined and rarely out of position, Iowa has the speed and power to hold contain in all phases of the field, allowing just 3 TD passes all year and 1 on the ground.
This should be the game where Iowa's impressive averages finally tick up a little after meeting up with Ohio State's skill threats, a caliber of athlete the Hawkeyes haven't met up with yet.
College Football HQ Prediction: Ohio State 37, Iowa 6
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- TCU
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- Utah
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Texas
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Tulane