Ohio State vs. Michigan State preview, prediction: Week 6 college football picks

What to watch for as Ohio State and Michigan State meet on the Week 6 college football schedule

A pair of Big Ten rivals meet up as No. 3 Ohio State goes on the road for the first time this season to square off against Michigan State in college football's Week 6 action on Saturday.

Ohio State is perfect through five games, including a 2-0 mark in Big Ten play, outscoring Wisconsin and Rutgers, 101-31.

Sparty is 2-3 on the year and yet to win in conference after two tries, losing three straight overall since a trip to Washington before dropping two decisions against Minnesota and Maryland.

Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State preview, prediction

Week 6 college football picks: Ohio State vs. Michigan State

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 8

Time: 4 p.m. Eastern

TV: ABC network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook

Line: Ohio State -26.5

Ohio State ATS: 2-2-1

Michigan State ATS: 1-3-1

O/U: 64.5

Moneyline: OSU -5000 MSU +1400

FPI pick: Ohio State 88.6%

Related: Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks, predictions: Week 6 college football odds, spread, lines

Ohio State vs. Michigan State: What you need to know

Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson / USA Today Images

College Football HQ turns to team experts in the SI Fannation network to provide in-depth coverage of Saturday's game

Matthew Lounsberry of Spartan Nation joins us to bring you the keys to the matchup 

MSU's revamped secondary faces a huge challenge. Michigan State has had to make adjustments to its personnel in the secondary after fifth-year senior and team captain Xavier Henderson suffered a leg injury in the Spartans' season-opener. Senior Kendall Brooks replaced Henderson at strong safety, while true freshman Jaden Mangham has developed to the point where the coaching staff has entrusted him to start at free safety. That's freed up former starting free safety Angelo Grose to move to nickelback, a more natural position for him. Cornerbacks Ameer Speed and Charles Brantley round out the secondary. The Spartans had more success with this lineup last week against Maryland, but they face a major test in Week 6 against the Buckeyes. — Matthew Lounsberry, Senior Writer for Spartan Nation

Spartans need RBs, OL to gel quickly. Through five weeks, Michigan State is still looking for a tailback rotation that consistently yields results. Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger was productive early against Western Michigan and Akron, but has struggled against Big Ten competition. Meanwhile, senior Elijah Collins was very productive on limited carries vs. Maryland, and could see his role increase going forward. For Michigan State to have any shot against the Buckeyes, they'll have to be more balanced offensively and take pressure off quarterback Payton Thorne. MSU's offensive line has bene good in pass protection this season, but we've yet to see them put a solid ground game together against a Power 5 opponent. That will be a challenge again this week vs. Ohio State's talented front. — Matthew Lounsberry

Buckeyes need to avoid the trap. Not that OSU is actually in danger of losing this game, it would still do well for Ryan Day to hold up Georgia as an example of a heavily favored team falling asleep at the wheel midseason. College football's defending national champs played it way too close against Kent State and Missouri and Ohio State could find itself drifting into autopilot as it goes against one after another overmatched Big Ten opponent. It needs to keep its foot all the way on the gas pedal and stay perfect to avoid giving the CFP committee any reason to question this team's resume. — College Football HQ

Ohio State vs. Michigan State: Fast Facts

+ Ohio State is 1st nationally with a 100% red zone offensive success rate (25 of 25)

+ MSU has defeated Ohio State 3 times since 2011, most of any Big Ten team

+ Buckeyes lead nation with 23 red zone TDs and 1 of 2 teams (Oregon) with 10-plus rushing and passing scores

+ Michigan State has forced 9 fumbles, 2nd most in FBS

+ OSU is 2nd in FBS with 18 tackles for loss allowed

+ Spartans are 12-1 when leading at halftime under Tucker and 3-9 when not

+ Ohio State has scored TDs in 18 of 20 quarters and in 12 straight

+ MSU is 11-0 under Tucker when scoring first and 4-10 when not

+ OSU is 3rd nationally with 529.6 yards per game

+ Michigan State is 11-0 when scoring 30-plus points under Tucker

+ Ohio State has won 15 of the last 18 vs. MSU and 8 straight on the road

+ Spartans are 10-0 when leading after 1st qtr and 1-9 when trailing under Tucker

+ Ohio State is averaging 55.7 points per game in its last 4

+ Michigan State is 14-0 under Tucker when allowing 20 or fewer points

+ OSU outscores opponents 84-20 in the first quarter and 70-13 in the third

+ Spartans are 12-0 under Tucker when leading after three quarters and 2-10 when not

+ Ohio State is 1st nationally at 48.8 points per game and 34 TDs total

Michigan State vs. Ohio State Prediction

Last season, the Spartans were the toast of the Big Ten and a top 10 team when they went into Columbus and got cut in half.

And it's hard to see where this team got better a year later. Kenneth Walker, the gifted tailback and engine behind Michigan State's superb offense a year ago, is gone to the NFL. 

MSU's secondary unit, college football's worst last fall, hasn't looked good against the likes of Penix, Morgan, and Tagovailoa in three straight losses.

Now comes CJ Stroud, a Heisman favorite before he even threw a pass this season, and in command of the 3rd ranked total offense in the nation. His big arm combined with the Buckeyes' unrivaled group of skill threats are no match for Sparty's back seven.

Combine that with a Spartan rushing attack that ranks just 99th nationally going against an improved OSU run stop that's top 35, and the scarlet and grey have the advantage in just about every phase of the game.

College Football HQ Prediction: Ohio State 42, Michigan State 20

---

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
   
5. Clemson
6. USC
7. Oklahoma State
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. Utah
12. Oregon
13. Kentucky
14. NC State
15. Wake Forest
16. BYU
17. TCU
18. UCLA
19. Kansas
20. Kansas State
21. Washington
22. Syracuse
23. Mississippi State
24. Cincinnati
25. LSU

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Facebook