Ohio State vs. Penn State preview, prediction: Week 9 college football picks
Ohio State vs. Penn State preview, prediction: Week 9 college football picks
Week 9 college football picks: Ohio State vs. Penn State
USA Today Images
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 29
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Ohio State -15
Ohio State ATS: 4-2-1
Penn State ATS: 4-3
Over/under: 61
Moneyline: OSU -752, PSU +450
FPI pick: Ohio State 79.6%
Related: Ohio State vs. Penn State picks, predictions: Week 9 college football odds, spread, lines
Ohio State vs. Penn State: What you need to know
1. A fast start. Both these teams have been good at getting their opponents out of sorts in the early part of games. Penn State has outscored teams 42-15 in the first quarter of matchups this season. Ohio State has blitzed the opposition 114-34 in the opening frame. And in the last two games of this series in particular, the Buckeyes have out-gunned the Nittany Lions by a combined 35-9 in the first quarters. Penn State has to be aggressive early, to say the least.
2. Penn State against the run. Going into the Michigan game two weeks ago, it was believed that PSU had a pretty solid run defense that could help keep the team in the division title race. Then the Wolverines ran through it for over 400 yards in a rout. In comes an Ohio State team that's top 25 running the ball, good for just over 205 ypg, but struggled badly against Iowa a week ago, finishing with 66 yards and just 2.2 yards per carry. Penn State wants to hold things down at the line and force OSU to throw the ball. About that...
3. The unstoppable force. Good luck to anyone stopping CJ Stroud leads college football with 28 total touchdowns, a 203.9 passer efficiency rating, 168 total points responsible for, and 24.0 points per game on average. He's dealing to arguably the best receiver room in the sport, even without Jaxon Smith-Njigba much of the year, and just put 54 points on an Iowa defense that's among the best in the nation. OSU's receivers are winning most of their battles on the perimeter, but should get a stiffer test from Penn State's athletic options in the back seven this week.
Fast Facts
+ OSU and PSU have played close games recently: the average margin of victory has been 6.3 points the last six times out
+ Penn State is 6th in red zone offense (.960) scoring 25 times (20 TDs)
+ Ohio State is 100% in the red zone, scoring on all 36 trips (31 TDs)
+ PSU is 13-18 all-time in regular season games between top 10 teams
+ OSU is No. 2 nationally in total defense allowing 239.9 yards per game
+ Penn State is 31-5 when rushing for 200 yards under James Franklin
+ Ohio State is 1st nationally with 7.77 yards per play
+ Nittany Lions are 9-1 in games when Sean Clifford passes and runs for a TD
+ Buckeyes have 48 plays of 20-plus yards this season and are 5th with 25 plays of 30-plus yards
+ PSU's Nick Singleton is 7th in FBS with 6.99 yards per carry
+ Ohio State is 3rd nationally allowing 29 TFLs/sacks
+ Penn State's Joey Porter is 2nd in FBS with 11 pass breakups
+ Ohio State is 32-0 when scoring 40 points under Ryan Day
Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction
Penn State's success in the red zone this season and its athleticism in the secondary suggests it has the power to keep the game close early.
Iowa showed the blueprint to slowing down Ohio State's offense in the first half of games: disguised coverages in the deep field and a consistent threat off the edges to shrink the pocket and force throws off schedule.
And while Penn State has the speed to hold contain on the back end for a while, it still lacks a developed pass rush to truly give constant push against Stroud and throw his timing off.
Sean Clifford has the arm and the targets to throw Ohio State's mid-range defense the wrong way a few times early in the game, but ultimately he doesn't have the firepower to match with the Buckeyes' output.
College Football HQ Prediction: Ohio State 41, Penn State 27
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia (31 1st-place votes)
2. Ohio State (18)
3. Tennessee (13)
4. Michigan
5. Clemson (1)
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma State
10. USC
T-10. Wake Forest
12. UCLA
13. Penn State
14. Utah
15. Ole Miss
16. Syracuse
17. Illinois
18. LSU
19. Kentucky
20. Cincinnati
21. North Carolina
22. Kansas State
23. Tulane
24. NC State
25. South Carolina