Ohio State vs. Toledo odds, spread, lines: Week 3 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Expert picks, predictions for Ohio State vs. Toledo on the Week 3 college football schedule

James Parks | Sep 17, 2022

Ohio State vs. Toledo odds, spread, lines: Week 3 college football picks, predictions by computer model /

Ohio State is perfect through 2 games and staying home against non-conference foe Toledo in college football's Week 3 action this Saturday.

OSU is coming off a comfortable win over Arkansas State and looking ahead to the Big Ten opener against Wisconsin next weekend, while Toledo is 2-0 after dominant victories against LIU and UMass.

What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Ohio State vs. Toledo football picks, predictions

Ohio State Buckeyes college football team schedule, rankings — Week 3 college football schedule: Ohio State vs. Toledo

Don't lose any sleep over this one, Buckeye fans: Ohio State comes in with a 97.4 percent chance to defeat Toledo in the non-conference finale.

Toledo has a 2.6 percent shot to upset the Buckeyes in the game. So you're saying there's a chance... (We're not.)

The oddsmakers predictably side with Ohio State, which comes in as 31.5 point favorites, according to the opening line at Caesars Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 61 points.

Ohio State checks in at No. 2 in the latest 131 college football rankings, according to the computer, a jump of 1 spot, and projected to win 11.6 games this season by the index.

OSU is estimated to be a 27.4 points better on average than the teams on its schedule, per the FPI, which calculates the Buckeyes have a 79.2 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 26.1 percent shot to win it.

AP top 25 voters kept Ohio State in the No. 3 slot this week.

Toledo is the consensus favorite in the MAC this season, going on the computer's prediction, coming in at No. 67 nationally in the FPI poll.

That's an improvement of 19 positions this week, with the computer projecting the Rockets will win 9.5 games on the season, but in close games: Toledo is an estimated 0.2 points better than the teams on its schedule.

College Football Power Index

ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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Published Sep 17, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.