Kansas vs. Oklahoma preview, prediction: Week 7 college football picks
The tables have turned this season on the Kansas vs. Oklahoma matchup, with the Jayhawks coming in as a ranked team and the Sooners not as these Big 12 rivals meet in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.
Kansas is seven points removed from an undefeated record after a close loss at home to TCU, the same TCU that hammered the Sooners for almost 700 yards in a rout that finally dumped OU from the top 25 poll.
Then came a 49-0 thrashing at the hands of arch rival Texas leading into this weekend's game against a resurgent KU.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma preview, prediction
Week 7 college football schedule: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 15
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook
Line: Oklahoma -9
Kansas ATS: 5-0-1
Oklahoma ATS: 2-4
Over/under: 62
Moneyline: KU +240, OU -333
FPI pick: Oklahoma 69.1%
Related: Kansas vs. Oklahoma picks, predictions: Week 7 college football odds, spread, lines
Kansas vs. Oklahoma: What you need to know
1. OU's quarterback situation. Dillon Gabriel didn't play last week against Texas after taking a vicious hit to the head in the TCU game. It's safe to say the Sooner offense struggled in his absence: Davis Beville was OU's best option, and he went 6 of 12 for 38 yards and a pick. Gabriel has emerged as one of the top players in the Big 12 even in limited action, passing for 1,215 yards with 11 TDs and no picks, running for 2 scores and 126 yards. It appears he might be ready to return; he better for this offense's sake.
2. What Jalon Daniels' absence means. This week, Kansas got the awful news that star quarterback Jalon Daniels would reportedly sit out the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. But looking at his replacement, maybe KU doesn't have to worry too much. Jason Bean stacked up 262 yards in the air and threw four touchdown passes, going snap for snap with TCU's elite attack in that close loss. But watch how Daniels' absence affects the Jayhawks' rushing capacity: he was the team's second-leading runner and had scored 5 of its 16 rushing touchdowns. KU shouldn't suffer too badly for space on the ground against OU, which allowed 300-plus from backs in its three Big 12 outings, but it's worth watching going forward.
3. Negative plays for the Sooners. Everybody knows OU's defense is a mess, and given it's Brent Venables leading this thing, that only makes it even more confusing. But the numbers are shocking: Oklahoma is allowing 214.5 rushing yards per game, worst in the Big 12 and 122nd nationally, surrendering 48.3 points per game in conference matchups, allowing 12 rushing scores and 6.7 yards per carry in that span. There's real speed on the front seven, and they're racking up big tackle numbers, but only because opponents are running so many plays. One area of relative strength is that 44 of the Sooners' tackles have resulted in negative yardage, good for 15th nationally. This is a good place to build from: OU needs to get offenses off the field not just when their passes fall incomplete, but when this defense is physically forcing them to give the ball back.
OU vs. KU: Fast Facts
+ Kansas is 4th nationally with 7.33 yards per play
+ OU has won 4 of 5 games in the regular season when unranked since 2010
+ KU is outscoring opponents 143-75 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters this year
+ Oklahoma is 127th out of 131 in FBS in time of possession
+ Kansas is 4th in college football with a 55.1% third down success rate on offense
+ Sooners are 11th nationally with 17 offensive plays of 30-plus yards
+ KU has allowed 3 sacks so far, the 4th fewest nationally
+ 7 of OU's 24 TD drives have taken more than 2 minutes (71% are shorter than 2 minutes)
+ Kansas has recorded 16 sacks on opposing QBs, the most since 2009
+ OU back Eric Gray is 14th nationally with 6.9 yards per carry
+ Kansas is 6-3 when leading at halftime under Lance Leipold and 1-8 when trailing
+ Sooners have won 80 straight games when holding opponents to 23 or fewer points
+ KU is 4-0 when allowing 29 or fewer points under Leipold and 3-11 when allowing 30 or more
+ Oklahoma is 72-3 when scoring 40-plus points since 2012
+ KU is averaging 5.95 yards per carry, 7th nationally and 2nd in Big 12
+ Sooners have scored on 17 of 20 red zone chances (14 TDs, 3 FGs)
+ Kansas is 7-2 when leading after 3rd qtr under Leipold and 0-9 when not
Kansas vs. Oklahoma Prediction
USA Today Images
Don't underestimate the power of desperation. It's not often that Oklahoma, the most successful overall college football program since World War II, has faced a situation like this, on the cusp of starting 0-4 in conference play.
You don't need to be a football scientist to know what's wrong: OU can't play defense at all right now. In theory, there's a fix for that.
Defenses play a lot better and with more confidence when they're not making so many plays. And the key to keeping your defense off the field is to keep your offense on it. How to do that? Invest in what still looks like a stout rushing attack to hold onto the ball, burn the clock, punch it in for touchdowns from close range, and demoralize the other team.
OU plays offense a little too quickly this season: almost 3/4ths of its TD possessions are under two minutes long; it would do well to pace this thing a little more and sustain longer drives.
If it doesn't, Kansas will. It has the variety and the proven per-play output to control games like this, even with its backup playing quarterback. But it's not as desperate as Oklahoma is.
College Football HQ Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Kansas 31
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. UCLA
12. Oregon
13. TCU
14. Wake Forest
15. NC State
16. Mississippi State
17. Kansas State
18. Syracuse
19. Kansas
20. Utah
21. Cincinnati
T-22. Kentucky
T-22. Texas
24. Illinois
25. James Madison