Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Expert picks, predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor on the Week 5 college football schedule

The rematch is here. Last season, Baylor held Oklahoma State just inches shy of winning the Big 12 championship and potentially making the College Football Playoff.

Now these two conference rivals meet again in a critical regular season matchup in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model forecasts the game.

Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds, spread, predictions

Week 5 college football picks: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State / USA Today Images

The computer is siding with the home team this week, as Baylor has the 65.3 percent chance to defeat Oklahoma State on Saturday, according to the index.

By contrast, the Cowboys have the 34.7 percent shot to beat the Bears.

The oddsmakers project a somewhat closer game, as Baylor comes in the 2.5 point favorites to win, according to the line at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 54.5 points for the matchup.

Baylor checks in at No. 15 in the index's 131 college football rankings, a drop of 1 spot despite its win over Iowa State a week ago.

FPI projects Baylor will win 8.4 games on the season in defense of its Big 12 title and be 15.2 points better on average than the teams on its schedule.

Baylor comes in 2nd place with a 28.0 percent chance to win the conference again, but is an outlier in the College Football Playoff chase, with a 2.3 percent shot at making the final four rankings.

AP top 25 voters bumped Baylor up 1 spot to the No. 16 position in the latest poll and kept Oklahoma State at No. 9 after its bye week.

OSU checks in at No. 20 overall on the computer rankings, projected to win 7.8 games this season and be 11.6 points better on average than the teams on its schedule week to week.

Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. USC
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. NC State
11. Penn State
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. Ole Miss
15. Washington
16. Baylor
17. Texas A&M
18. Oklahoma
19. BYU
20. Arkansas
21. Minnesota
22. Wake Forest
23. Florida State
24. Pittsburgh
25. Kansas State

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